The United States, Iran and a group of regional mediators are considering the terms of a temporary ceasefire that could extend to a permanent solution, according to American, Israeli and regional sources familiar with the discussions.
summary
- US, Iranian and regional mediators are discussing a two-stage ceasefire plan, although the chances of reaching an agreement in the near term remain limited.
- Pakistan proposed the “Islamabad Agreement” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and prevent further escalation.
Axios a report He said that the possibilities of reaching a partial agreement within the next 48 hours are still limited. However, officials described these efforts as the last chance to avoid a sharp escalation that could include strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure and retaliatory attacks on energy and water facilities throughout the Gulf states.
Separately, A source A person familiar with the negotiations said that Washington and Tehran had received a proposal that could halt hostilities as early as Monday while the Strait of Hormuz was reopened. The plan, drafted by Pakistan and shared overnight, outlines a two-step process starting with an immediate ceasefire followed by negotiations toward a comprehensive settlement.
The source said: “All elements must be agreed upon today,” noting that the initial understanding will take the form of a memorandum of understanding that will be finalized electronically through Pakistan, which has become the only channel of communication.
The source added that Pakistani Army Commander Asim Munir was in constant contact “all night” with J.D. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
Under this framework, a ceasefire would take effect immediately and allow shipping through the strait to resume, with a period of 15 to 20 days to finalize a broader agreement. The proposal, informally referred to as the “Islamabad Agreement,” also envisions a regional framework governing the waterway, with final in-person talks expected to take place in Islamabad.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues It pushed global oil prices to rise.
Donald Trump has repeatedly issued deadlines for Iran to reopen the crossing or face military action targeting its energy infrastructure. In a recent Truth Social post, he The deadline was extended to Tuesday He warned that Iran would “live in hell” if it failed to comply.
Despite mounting diplomatic pressure, Tehran has not yet indicated acceptance of the proposed ceasefire. Iranian officials said any agreement must include guarantees against future attacks by the United States and Israel. They also confirmed receiving messages from mediators, including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt, supporting a 45-day temporary truce to allow further negotiations.
The draft agreement is expected to include commitments from Iran not to seek nuclear weapons in exchange for easing sanctions and access to frozen assets. However, officials said no official commitment has been obtained yet.
Iran’s leadership has maintained a defiant stance, warning that it will respond “in kind” to any attack on its infrastructure, while also considering measures such as transit fees before reopening the strait.
How will the cryptocurrency market react to a possible cooling-off?
Although the agreement has not been finalized at press time, risk assets are starting to recover. The total market value of cryptocurrencies rose by about 3.4% to reach $2.47 trillion, with the rise of Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Trying to reclaim the $70,000 level. Ethereum (Ethereum), Ripple (XRP), and other major cryptocurrency tokens posted gains in the 3% to 6% range.
The move suggests that traders may already be preparing for a potential de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could stabilize energy markets and ease inflation pressures.
However, traditional markets presented a mixed picture. Asian stocks were mostly lower, with the Nikkei 225 emerging as an exception, while gold and silver traded in a narrow range as investors balanced uncertainty with selective exposure to risk.
A confirmed ceasefire could support both cryptocurrencies and global stocks by easing oil prices and improving the outlook for monetary policy. Lower energy costs tend to reduce inflation pressures, which may increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve taking a more dovish stance.
Failure to reach an agreement carries with it an adverse risk. An escalation that includes direct strikes on Iranian infrastructure and retaliation across the region could lead to a sharp shift toward safe-haven assets, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies as capital moves into the dollar and traditional defensive plays.
Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials contained on this page are for educational purposes only.
