The Bitcoin price forecast turned solidly bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported I mentioned Perpetual funding rates fell to their most negative levels since 2023 with a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if very short positions in the market are forced to unwind.
summary
- Bitcoin traded near $74,700 in the Asian morning hours on Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day, with a 10-day rally in global stocks halted before the Iran ceasefire expires on April 22.
- The 7-day moving average funding rate has fallen to ~0.005% according to Glassnode data, which was last seen during the bottom of the FTX collapse in late 2022, with every previous historical episode of similar funding extremes – March 2020, mid-2021, August 2024 – aligning with local price lows.
- On-chain data shows that many active Bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their cost basis, meaning the resulting squeeze rally could face material selling pressure from holders who have held Bitcoin in the $75,000 to $95,000 range through 2025.
Bitcoin (Bitcoin) Price forecasts turned strongly bullish early Friday as CoinDesk reported I mentioned Perpetual funding rates fell to their most negative levels since 2023 with a seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if very short positions in the market are forced to unwind.
Bitcoin traded near $74,700 in early Asian trading on Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day as a 10-day rally in global stocks stalled ahead of next week’s Iran ceasefire deadline. The asset rallied from the mid-$60,000s during March and April despite continued negative financing, meaning shorts were pushing long positions for weeks while the price continued to rise.
Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short contract holders in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep contract prices in line with the spot price. When prices become negative, short trades drive long trades – a situation that only develops when speculative positions are significantly tilted against the price. The 7-day moving average price fell to roughly -0.005%, according to Glassnode data, a reading last seen at the bottom of the FTX crash in late 2022.
“These negative financing rates indicate that the market is severely undersupplied,” Reis Faria said. “If Bitcoin continues to rise though, a lot of those positions could be liquidated, and that move could accelerate quickly.” He is targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the short base is unwound, citing buying pressure from large corporate pools as the force most likely to trigger forced liquidations across the short base.
Every previous historical episode of similar financing extremes has been consistent with a domestic price floor. March 2020, mid-2021, the FTX collapse in late 2022, the unwinding of the yen carry trade in August 2024, and the April 2025 release day sell-off were all marked by extremely negative financing that was resolved by sharp redemptions. For traders who follow Hopes for a ceasefire About the April 22 deadline As a timing trigger, this historical pattern reinforces the near-term bullish view.
What can prevent high blood pressure
On-chain data provides a structural counterpoint. Many active Bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their cost of acquisition, meaning that any squeeze-driven rally that approaches their cost basis could generate significant selling pressure from holders who bought in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during the peak accumulation period in 2025. This is sometimes called a “wall of anxious owners” – participants who won’t have to sell but will sell when they can.
Going up to $125,000 will require absorbing this offer sequentially, moving through each group on a cost basis without giving up. the Oversold signals On-chain visuals and technical data support the structurally bullish case, but underwater holder distribution complicates a clean short squeeze scenario to a new high without a strong macro catalyst doing the heavy lifting.
Motivational calendar
Three events over the next two weeks will resolve the current issue. The expiration of the ceasefire in Iran on April 22 is a first: a credible extension removes the geopolitical risks that have capped risk asset rallies since February, while a collapse would likely push Bitcoin towards the $68,000 structural support level. The Federal Open Market Committee meets April 28-29, and any dovish signal from Chairman Powell will reduce the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin. The confirmed date of the CLARITY Act Commission in early May will add a third potential trigger specific to the digital asset market.
