The Trump-Iran war has wiped out more than 500 million barrels of global supplies and wiped out more than $50 billion in the value of crude oil in about seven weeks. The disruption began in late February and has not slowed down. Analysts and Reuters data say the impact will last for months and even years as supply chains struggle to recover.
This is no small harm. It is the largest shock to energy supplies in modern history, based on Kepler data. The missing barrels include crude oil and condensate that never reached the market, and this gap is already shaking pricing, storage and trade flows through the system.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is open after the ceasefire agreement related to Lebanon. Meanwhile, Trump said an agreement to end the war could be reached soon, but did not give a clear timing, leaving markets guessing and traders on edge.
Global markets are losing massive supplies and price risks are rising rapidly
The magnitude of the loss is extreme. Five hundred million barrels is equivalent to ten weeks of global aviation demand, or eleven days without road traffic around the world, or five days in which the entire global economy has no supply of oil. Wood Mackenzie’s Ian Mowat said it straight, linking the numbers to real-world usage.
Reuters Estimates The same volume appears to cover approximately one month of demand in the US and more than a month for Europe. It also equates to about six years’ worth of fuel used by the US military, based on about 80 million barrels per year, and can power global shipping for four consecutive months.
Markets are now predicting a 44% chance that the price of US oil will jump above $100 a barrel this month if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again. Traders are watching this choke point closely because it controls a large share of global flows.
Trump spoke about the situation on Saturday and said that Iran had tried to pressure the United States by threatening to close the Strait again. He rejected this approach and said the talks would continue without surrender. Speaking from the Oval Office, he said: “Iran has gotten a little nice… They wanted to close the Strait again… They can’t blackmail us.”
Tankers are moving through the strait while damage slows recovery across the region
Ship tracking data shows that five LNG ships from Ras Laffan in Qatar are heading towards the Strait of Hormuz. The ships are Ghashamiya, Liberte, Fuwairit, Rashida, and Disha. Qatar Energy Company controls the first four stations, while Petronet leases Disha from India.
If these ships pass, it will be the first shipments of liquefied natural gas through the strait since the war began on February 28. Iran reopened the road on Friday after a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and by Saturday, a convoy of oil tankers was already moving through the canal.
Before the conflict, the strait handled about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade, making it one of the most important energy routes on the planet. Qatar is the second largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, with most shipments heading to Asia, but Iranian strikes have reduced seventeen percent of its export capacity.
The reforms are expected to remove 12.8 million metric tons per year from supply for three to five years, creating long-term pressure on gas markets. Even with the opening of the strait, recovery will not be quick.
Kpler data shows that global onshore crude oil inventories fell by about 45 million barrels during the month of April alone. Since late March, the outage has reached about 12 million barrels per day, indicating the depth of the disruption.
Heavy crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq need between four and five months to return to normal production levels, pushing supply shortages into the summer. Damage to refineries and the Ras Laffan LNG complex adds further delay, meaning full recovery of regional energy systems could take years.
