XRP (XRP) could rise towards $5 or higher by March, according to a host of bullish indicators.
XRP bounce doubles down on bull flag setup
As of January 14, XRP was forming a bullish flag pattern on the longer time frame charts.
A bull flag setup is formed when the price consolidates sideways or lower within a parallel channel after experiencing a significant rise. In technical analysis, this setup is resolved when the price breaks above the upper trend line of the channel and rises by the height of the previous uptrend.
XRP bounced around 25% after testing the flag’s lower trendline as support, increasing the odds of a rally towards upper trendline resistance near $3.35-3.50. Continuing bullish momentum from there, if accompanied by higher volume, could lead the price towards the bull flag target at the $4.90-5.00 area, as shown below.
Conversely, XRP may face downward pressure near its 50-period Exponential Moving Average (50-period EMA; red wave) at around $2.28. This will likely lead to a retest of the flag’s lower trend line support, which, if broken to the downside, will completely invalidate the bullish outlook.
Renewed XRP HODLer Behavior Signals
HODLer Net Position Change data from Glassnode suggests that long-term holders of XRP will shift back to accumulating after a long distribution phase in late 2025.
During that period, negative readings indicated that holders were reducing exposure as the price moved sideways. Recently, the measure has turned positive, suggesting that long-term investors are once again increasing their positions.
Historically, such shifts tend to follow corrective or consolidating phases, which often indicate a return of conviction rather than market exhaustion. In the case of XRP, the renewed accumulation is consistent with the price rebounding from the lower bound of the broader bull flag structure. If this trend continues with XRP testing resistance near $3.35 to $3.50, it would support a breakout case towards the measured target of $4.90 to $5.00.
A return to sustainable distribution would weaken this bullish outlook.
XRP NUPL shows rising profits, but euphoria is absent
XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric indicates that holders are holding incremental unrealized gains, but the market has not yet entered an overheating phase.
The indicator has moved into the “belief-denial” zone, a system that usually follows a strong trend reversal and reflects growing conviction among profitable shareholders.
Historically, this phase supports trend continuation, as selling pressure remains weak during pullbacks. Importantly, XRP’s NUPL remains below the “euphoria-greed” zone, indicating that upside potential remains before sentiment reaches exhaustion. A sustained rise in NUPL along with the price would reinforce the case for a bullish breakout, while a sharp extension could signal risks of early profit taking.
