Three congressional candidates bet on their election races. A senator sent a letter demanding that the CFTC explain how the bets were resolved. Both Calci and Polymarket have indicated a move to perpetual futures.
Singapore Summit: Meet the top APAC brokers you know (and those you don’t know yet!).
Two new problems have been added to the host of problems that the prediction markets industry has been suffering from. Let’s see what matters this week.
What drives prediction markets?
The candidates are betting on themselves this week
On April 22, Kalci announced this Three congressional candidates suspended and fined To trade their electoral results. They were each banned from the platform for five years, while fines ranged from $539.85 to $6,229.30.
The cases were identified through new engineering safeguards introduced by the platform in March. Kalci described this behavior as “political insider trading” that violates CFTC-approved exchange rules.
Blumenthal presses CFTC over betting decision
On April 21, Senator Richard Blumenthal sent a letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig inquiring how the agency would oversee the resolution of disputed bets in prediction markets.
The letter referred to recent disputes over military labor contracts – including bets on Calcci and Polymarket that relied on disputed definitions of terms such as “invasion” or “control”.
Blumenthal frames the issue more explicitly on X:
Polymarket and Calcio, as Trump said, have turned the whole world into a casino – including war and national secrets. Trump’s CFTC allowed this to happen. There is a solution – create real rules for these prediction markets like my Prediction Market Safety and Fairness Code. https://t.co/Rqr0XsZlhW
– Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) April 24, 2026
He also raised Polymarket’s “know your customer” practices, questioning the steps the CFTC has taken to investigate the platform’s ability to ban US users.
Platforms are moving into cryptocurrency futures
Reports this week indicated that Calci is preparing to launch cryptocurrency futures with an expected launch around April 27. The company did not confirm the details, and the announcement has so far been limited to a teaser video clip.
Within hours of those reports, Polymarket signaled its move toward permanent contracts, signaling a broader shift beyond event contracts. The move will put both platforms in direct competition with established places like Coinbase and Cboe, which have already offered similar products.
The two platforms are likely to take different approaches. Calci is expected to move within its US regulatory framework, while Polymarket, which primarily operates overseas, may expand faster across a broader range of assets.
The key question here is whether either model is able to attract a significant volume of markets that have historically operated without these restrictions.
Quote of the week
New York Attorney General Letitia James A lawsuit was filed this week against Coinbase and Geminiarguing that their predictive market offerings constitute illegal gambling under state law.
This is how it defined its position on X:
.@twin and @coinbaseSo-called prediction markets are simply illegal gambling operations that expose young people to addictive platforms.
Gambling by another name is still gambling. I’m suing to stop these platforms from breaking the law.https://t.co/DosDKe2un1
– New York AG James (@NewYorkStateAG) April 21, 2026
Week number
$409,881 – The profit a US Army soldier is accused of making by predicting market trades using classified information.
Federal prosecutors say this case First to charge insider trading fees It is directly linked to the prediction market, marking a shift from platform-level enforcement to criminal prosecution.
Friction of the week
The central tension this week is between self-regulation and organizational legitimacy. Kalci suspended three congressional candidates and described the action as evidence of the success of implementation mechanisms.
Blumenthal’s letter points to the other side of the problem: There are still no clear federal rules about how disputed contracts should be regulated, disclosed, or resolved. Enforcement actions are real. It named candidates, disclosed fines, and published disciplinary notices.
But those cases involved small amounts and platform-level penalties. The accused New York soldier shows where the stakes go next. Federal prosecutors allege he used confidential information to trade on her Polymarket Contracts linked to Venezuela, earning about $409,881.
This situation turns into insider trading Prediction markets From a compliance issue to a criminal case. The gap is now becoming more apparent: platforms can police their own venues, but more serious cases may depend on federal prosecutors, not sharing rules.
The April 30 deadline for responses to the CFTC’s comments arrives next week. The agency’s move toward binding rules will determine how far the argument for self-regulation can go.
Bottom line
This week produced three distinct stories, each from a different layer of the industry. Calci’s enforcement actions against congressional candidates demonstrated that the platform’s internal compliance system can identify and punish low-level violations. Blumenthal’s letter to the CFTC showed that much of Congress did not believe internal compliance was adequate.
The platforms’ planned move into cryptocurrency futures indicates that companies are already expanding beyond event contracts. Together they point to one issue: rules exist, but have not yet been agreed upon or applied consistently.
Three congressional candidates bet on their election races. A senator sent a letter demanding that the CFTC explain how the bets were resolved. Both Calci and Polymarket have indicated a move to perpetual futures.
Singapore Summit: Meet the top APAC brokers you know (and those you don’t know yet!).
Two new problems have been added to the host of problems that the prediction markets industry has been suffering from. Let’s see what matters this week.
What drives prediction markets?
The candidates are betting on themselves this week
On April 22, Kalci announced this Three congressional candidates suspended and fined To trade their electoral results. They were each banned from the platform for five years, while fines ranged from $539.85 to $6,229.30.
The cases were identified through new engineering safeguards introduced by the platform in March. Kalci described this behavior as “political insider trading” that violates CFTC-approved exchange rules.
Blumenthal presses CFTC over betting decision
On April 21, Senator Richard Blumenthal sent a letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig inquiring how the agency would oversee the resolution of disputed bets in prediction markets.
The letter referred to recent disputes over military labor contracts – including bets on Calcci and Polymarket that relied on disputed definitions of terms such as “invasion” or “control”.
Blumenthal frames the issue more explicitly on X:
Polymarket and Calcio, as Trump said, have turned the whole world into a casino – including war and national secrets. Trump’s CFTC allowed this to happen. There is a solution – create real rules for these prediction markets like my Prediction Market Safety and Fairness Code. https://t.co/Rqr0XsZlhW
– Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) April 24, 2026
He also raised Polymarket’s “know your customer” practices, questioning the steps the CFTC has taken to investigate the platform’s ability to ban US users.
Platforms are moving into cryptocurrency futures
Reports this week indicated that Calci is preparing to launch cryptocurrency futures with an expected launch around April 27. The company did not confirm the details, and the announcement has so far been limited to a teaser video clip.
Within hours of those reports, Polymarket signaled its move toward permanent contracts, signaling a broader shift beyond event contracts. The move will put both platforms in direct competition with established places like Coinbase and Cboe, which have already offered similar products.
The two platforms are likely to take different approaches. Calci is expected to move within its US regulatory framework, while Polymarket, which primarily operates overseas, may expand faster across a broader range of assets.
The key question here is whether either model is able to attract a significant volume of markets that have historically operated without these restrictions.
Quote of the week
New York Attorney General Letitia James A lawsuit was filed this week against Coinbase and Geminiarguing that their predictive market offerings constitute illegal gambling under state law.
This is how it defined its position on X:
.@twin and @coinbaseSo-called prediction markets are simply illegal gambling operations that expose young people to addictive platforms.
Gambling by another name is still gambling. I’m suing to stop these platforms from breaking the law.https://t.co/DosDKe2un1
– New York AG James (@NewYorkStateAG) April 21, 2026
Week number
$409,881 – The profit a US Army soldier is accused of making by predicting market trades using classified information.
Federal prosecutors say this case First to charge insider trading fees It is directly linked to the prediction market, marking a shift from platform-level enforcement to criminal prosecution.
Friction of the week
The central tension this week is between self-regulation and organizational legitimacy. Kalci suspended three congressional candidates and described the action as evidence of the success of implementation mechanisms.
Blumenthal’s letter points to the other side of the problem: There are still no clear federal rules about how disputed contracts should be regulated, disclosed, or resolved. Enforcement actions are real. It named candidates, disclosed fines, and published disciplinary notices.
But those cases involved small amounts and platform-level penalties. The accused New York soldier shows where the stakes go next. Federal prosecutors allege he used confidential information to trade on her Polymarket Contracts linked to Venezuela, earning about $409,881.
This situation turns into insider trading Prediction markets From a compliance issue to a criminal case. The gap is now becoming more apparent: platforms can police their own venues, but more serious cases may depend on federal prosecutors, not sharing rules.
The April 30 deadline for responses to the CFTC’s comments arrives next week. The agency’s move toward binding rules will determine how far the argument for self-regulation can go.
Bottom line
This week produced three distinct stories, each from a different layer of the industry. Calci’s enforcement actions against congressional candidates demonstrated that the platform’s internal compliance system can identify and punish low-level violations. Blumenthal’s letter to the CFTC showed that much of Congress did not believe internal compliance was adequate.
The platforms’ planned move into cryptocurrency futures indicates that companies are already expanding beyond event contracts. Together they point to one issue: rules exist, but have not yet been agreed upon or applied consistently.
