XRP is showing mixed signals, with strong institutional flows and real-world adoption on the one hand, and a bearish technical setup on the other indicating a potential decline towards $1.
The bearish triangle setup targets the $1.05 level
On the daily chart, XRP is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle after a sharp downtrend from above $2.00 earlier in 2026. In such contexts, triangles usually act as continuation patterns, favoring a move in the direction of the previous trend, which is still bearish.
The price is currently trading below key resistance levels, including the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA near $1.39-$1.40, limiting upward attempts. Momentum also remains weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 43, indicating a lack of strong buying pressure.
A daily close below the triangle’s lower trend line near $1.28-$1.30 would confirm a breakout. Based on the pattern’s rise, the measured downside target stands near $1.05, with interim support around $1.20. A deeper move could test the $1.00 psychological level briefly if selling accelerates.
The bearish setup will only weaken if XRP crosses the $1.45-$1.48 level, while a reversal in the broader trend would require a retracement of the 200-day moving average near $1.75.
ETF inflows reach 2026 highs
Despite the weak price structure, XRP is seeing strong institutional demand in the US.
U.S.
The flow direction was also constant. XRP ETFs have not recorded any outflow days since April 9, the longest such streak ever, while the week ending April 17 alone saw inflows worth $55.39 million.
Notably, the price of XRP has largely remained in a range between $1.37 and $1.43 despite these inflows. Analysts say this reflects a steady institutional buildup absorbing available supply rather than driving immediate upside.
In support of this view, approximately 35 million XRP were recently moved off exchanges, reducing liquid supply and potential short-term selling pressure.
Rakuten Rollout enhances real-world usage
Meanwhile, the narrative of XRP’s utility is strengthening in Asia.
Rakuten Japan Built-in It introduced XRP into its ecosystem in mid-April, allowing users to trade the token, convert loyalty points into XRP, and spend them via Rakuten Pay by converting to Rakuten Cash.
This offering exposes XRP to approximately 44 million users and over 5 million merchants, making it one of the largest real-world payment integrations for the token to date. Rakuten’s loyalty program, worth around $23 billion, strengthens the bridge between traditional rewards and the use of cryptocurrencies.
XRP’s current setup highlights the difference between fundamentals and price action.
On the one hand, rising ETF flows and expanding retail adoption indicate growing demand across both institutional and consumer sectors. On the other hand, the technical structure remains bearish, with price pressure below key resistance levels.
“Traders are showing excitement about the fact that the #4 market cap in cryptocurrencies is seeing more adoption,” data supplier Santiment said, adding:
“In terms of prices, these events don’t often immediately lead to a major price outbreak. It’s usually after the initial wave of euphoria, after the FOMO subsides, that the impact of this type of news sees a bullish outcome.”
