While the US prediction market industry fights over which regulatory model should govern it, Plus500 serves as infrastructure across both sides.
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The broker enables exposure to the sector without becoming a prediction market operator itself. The question is whether this infrastructure-based position gives Plus500 a lasting advantage.
The company is not a party to the lawsuits and bears no direct responsibility for their results, but the upside still depends on whether prediction markets are allowed to expand under either regulatory model.
Two competing regulatory approaches
At the heart of this dispute is a fundamental question: Are prediction markets financial instruments or a form of gambling? US regulators are responding to this problem in different ways, increasingly through the courts.
The conflict pits two competing models against each other: the federally regulated, exchange-based approach backed by the CFTC and platforms like Calci, and the state-licensed gaming model adopted by existing sportsbooks like FanDuel They defend.
This month, the situation escalated significantly when… The CFTC has filed lawsuits against the state of Arizonaand Connecticut and Illinois – states that have previously moved against prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that state-level intervention conflicts with federally approved designated contract markets.
Revenge came strong on the heels. New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and GeminiHe accused them of running illegal gambling operations through predictive market products. The federal government responded almost immediately, moving against New York to halt statewide enforcement and defend federal authority.
Disagreement is spreading. Calci is fighting multiple states in court, while Coinbase has proactively challenged state oversight. These parallel proceedings transform individual enforcement cases into a broader jurisdictional struggle between federal and state authorities.
What’s at stake?
Legal battles have direct financial consequences. Licensed sports betting shops in New York pay about 51% of total revenue in taxes; Platforms that operate within a derivatives framework do not do this.
The revenues involved are not trivial. According to estimates, Calci generated around $260 million in fees in 2025. Polymarket It is still smaller in terms of fees but has also grown alongside the rise in event-driven trading activity.
Consumer protection adds another dimension. Prediction market platforms currently allow participation from age 18, while state gambling laws typically set the minimum at 21, reflecting different assumptions about risk and oversight.
The outcome will determine not just who regulates this category, but how it is constructed: whether prediction markets are integrated into the federal financial system or pulled into state-controlled gaming frameworks, and where economies ultimately flow.
Where the Plus500 fits
Plus500 is not a prediction market operator. It is located at the access and infrastructure layer, gaining exposure to the sector through both.
Company Provides retail access to Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated event contracts Through the Plus500 futures platform, which acts as an intermediary while clearing trades through its Kalshi Klear membership. Contracts are listed and resolved on Kalshi, while Plus500 controls the user interface, setup and risk management.
“Plus500’s proprietary technology, suite of clearing memberships and well-established risk management infrastructure provide a scalable foundation to support broader participation and growth in prediction markets for B2C clients,” the company said.
At the same time, Plus500 is the designated clearing partner for FanDuel Prediction Marketsa joint venture between FanDuel and CME Group. In this role, it provides execution, clearing, and risk management in the background, with no user facing presence.
One role is front facing. The other is invisible to the end user.
“The group’s well-established infrastructure, including clearing, technology and risk management capabilities, also supports future opportunities with additional B2B partners within a strong regulatory framework,” the company added.
These positions reflect a broader shift in strategy. Plus500 built its business on CFD products but has expanded to include exchange-based operations and infrastructure.
Exposure and risks
Temple places Plus500 Across both sides of the regulatory divide – one part of the business is tied to the federal derivatives model, and the other supporting infrastructure is tied to the gaming-aligned market model.
This gives the company exposure to growth prediction markets without taking on the direct regulatory risks that platform operators face. Whatever the prevailing model, the infrastructure layer still needs to do its job.
This form does contribute to growth, although its exact effect has not been revealed. Plus500’s US business generated about $35 million In quarterly revenue, up 45% year-on-year, it now represents around 15% of group revenue and 18% of new customers.
This expansion was driven by its over-the-counter offerings, including futures and forecast markets, built on its existing US clearing footprint following the acquisition of Cunningham Goods.
However, the risk profile is less clear. Most of Plus500’s exposure is indirect and related to its role as a broker. The company relies on Kalshi and FanDuel, and its growth is tied to their ability to scale.
More restrictive regulation could limit retail access and reduce volumes across the ecosystem. At the same time, the long-term path of the sector remains uncertain.
What does this mean for the industry
For brokers and B2B providers, the key question is whether this model can be replicated, whether Plus500 has moved early enough to secure a structural advantage – and whether this advantage will hold when the regulatory outcome becomes clearer.
While the US prediction market industry fights over which regulatory model should govern it, Plus500 serves as infrastructure across both sides.
Singapore Summit: Meet the top APAC brokers you know (and those you don’t know yet!).
The broker enables exposure to the sector without becoming a prediction market operator itself. The question is whether this infrastructure-based position gives Plus500 a lasting advantage.
The company is not a party to the lawsuits and bears no direct responsibility for their results, but the upside still depends on whether prediction markets are allowed to expand under either regulatory model.
Two competing regulatory approaches
At the heart of this dispute is a fundamental question: Are prediction markets financial instruments or a form of gambling? US regulators are responding to this problem in different ways, increasingly through the courts.
The conflict pits two competing models against each other: the federally regulated, exchange-based approach backed by the CFTC and platforms like Calci, and the state-licensed gaming model adopted by existing sportsbooks like FanDuel They defend.
This month, the situation escalated significantly when… The CFTC has filed lawsuits against the state of Arizonaand Connecticut and Illinois – states that have previously moved against prediction market platforms. The CFTC argues that state-level intervention conflicts with federally approved designated contract markets.
Revenge came strong on the heels. New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and GeminiHe accused them of running illegal gambling operations through predictive market products. The federal government responded almost immediately, moving against New York to halt statewide enforcement and defend federal authority.
Disagreement is spreading. Calci is fighting multiple states in court, while Coinbase has proactively challenged state oversight. These parallel proceedings transform individual enforcement cases into a broader jurisdictional struggle between federal and state authorities.
What’s at stake?
Legal battles have direct financial consequences. Licensed sports betting shops in New York pay about 51% of total revenue in taxes; Platforms that operate within a derivatives framework do not do this.
The revenues involved are not trivial. According to estimates, Calci generated around $260 million in fees in 2025. Polymarket It is still smaller in terms of fees but has also grown alongside the rise in event-driven trading activity.
Consumer protection adds another dimension. Prediction market platforms currently allow participation from age 18, while state gambling laws typically set the minimum at 21, reflecting different assumptions about risk and oversight.
The outcome will determine not just who regulates this category, but how it is constructed: whether prediction markets are integrated into the federal financial system or pulled into state-controlled gaming frameworks, and where economies ultimately flow.
Where the Plus500 fits
Plus500 is not a prediction market operator. It is located at the access and infrastructure layer, gaining exposure to the sector through both.
Company Provides retail access to Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated event contracts Through the Plus500 futures platform, which acts as an intermediary while clearing trades through its Kalshi Klear membership. Contracts are listed and resolved on Kalshi, while Plus500 controls the user interface, setup and risk management.
“Plus500’s proprietary technology, suite of clearing memberships and well-established risk management infrastructure provide a scalable foundation to support broader participation and growth in prediction markets for B2C clients,” the company said.
At the same time, Plus500 is the designated clearing partner for FanDuel Prediction Marketsa joint venture between FanDuel and CME Group. In this role, it provides execution, clearing, and risk management in the background, with no user facing presence.
One role is front facing. The other is invisible to the end user.
“The group’s well-established infrastructure, including clearing, technology and risk management capabilities, also supports future opportunities with additional B2B partners within a strong regulatory framework,” the company added.
These positions reflect a broader shift in strategy. Plus500 built its business on CFD products but has expanded to include exchange-based operations and infrastructure.
Exposure and risks
Temple places Plus500 Across both sides of the regulatory divide – one part of the business is tied to the federal derivatives model, and the other supporting infrastructure is tied to the gaming-aligned market model.
This gives the company exposure to growth prediction markets without taking on the direct regulatory risks that platform operators face. Whatever the prevailing model, the infrastructure layer still needs to do its job.
This form does contribute to growth, although its exact effect has not been revealed. Plus500’s US business generated about $35 million In quarterly revenue, up 45% year-on-year, it now represents around 15% of group revenue and 18% of new customers.
This expansion was driven by its over-the-counter offerings, including futures and forecast markets, built on its existing US clearing footprint following the acquisition of Cunningham Goods.
However, the risk profile is less clear. Most of Plus500’s exposure is indirect and related to its role as a broker. The company relies on Kalshi and FanDuel, and its growth is tied to their ability to scale.
More restrictive regulation could limit retail access and reduce volumes across the ecosystem. At the same time, the long-term path of the sector remains uncertain.
What does this mean for the industry
For brokers and B2B providers, the key question is whether this model can be replicated, whether Plus500 has moved early enough to secure a structural advantage – and whether this advantage will hold when the regulatory outcome becomes clearer.
