summary
- The United States and Iran are close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the current war and hold detailed nuclear talks, according to Axios.
- The 14-item draft would halt Iranian uranium enrichment, ease sanctions, release billions in frozen funds, and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
- De-escalation around Iran has moved Bitcoin, gold and oil repeatedly this year, with previous ceasefire headlines helping push Bitcoin into the $78,000 to $79,000 range.
The White House believes it is “close to reaching an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and establish a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations,” Axios reported on Wednesday, citing US officials and two additional sources familiar with the talks. The United States expects Tehran’s response on several key points within the next 48 hours, making this “the closest agreement between the two parties since the start of the war,” according to the report.
The memorandum may end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Under the draft, Iran commits to halting uranium enrichment, while Washington agrees to lift some sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, Reuters outlined in its report on the Axios story. The two sides will also lift restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the passage that handles nearly 20% of global oil trade and that was partially closed due to Iranian actions and a U.S. naval blockade during the conflict.
The memorandum, described as a 14-point, one-page document, is being negotiated by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with several Iranian officials, using a mix of direct channels and mediation. In its current form, the memorandum would formally declare the end of regional hostilities and launch a thirty-day period of intense talks on a fuller agreement covering access to the strait, nuclear restrictions, and sanctions relief, with locations under discussion including Islamabad and Geneva. During that 30-day period, US shipping restrictions and blockades will be phased out; If the talks collapse, US forces will retain the authority to restore the blockade or resume military action.
What does the deal mean for Bitcoin, gold and risk assets?
Markets have already shown how sensitive they are to every turn in the Iran story. When the war first escalated in late February, bitcoin fell from about $66,000 to $63,000 within hours, wiping out more than $120 billion from the cryptocurrency’s market value, while gold surged toward new highs and oil briefly jumped more than 10%, as detailed in a report. idiot Postmortem and on a larger scale Economic times Review safe haven flows
As the conflict shifted from escalation to an unstable ceasefire, Bitcoin’s behavior reversed. When President Donald Trump signaled an initial de-escalation and a conditional ceasefire tied to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin jumped nearly 5% in one session to surpass $72,700, according to Bitcoin Magazine. The subsequent extension of the truce helped push Bitcoin towards $78,000, its highest level in more than ten weeks. Yahoo Finance I mentioned.
Analysts quoted by MEXC and other outlets have framed this pattern as a classic “de-risk, re-risk” sequence: In the initial shock, traders dump bitcoin along with stocks and shift into cash, gold, and oil; Once the ceasefire or de-escalation appears permanent, capital moves back into higher beta assets, with Bitcoin often outperforming in the relief phase. Modern MEXC Scenario analysis A report on the Iran-Israel war laid out this exact trajectory — oil prices falling, inflation expectations falling, Fed resuming cuts, and Bitcoin “rising” under ceasefire.
If Washington and Tehran now sign a preliminary memorandum ending the war and reopening the strait, traders are likely to replay a similar macro scenario: crude oil and gold prices could cool off from their highs during the crisis, expectations for interest rate cuts could strengthen, and bitcoin could benefit from a weaker dollar and renewed risk appetite. The crypto response won’t be linear — aggregate flows, ETF flows, and individual factors are all important — but the market has already shown that for this struggle, peace headlines tend to coincide with Bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000-$79,000 high zone, he noted. Encryption briefing.
In the medium term, a lasting understanding between the United States and Iran that would normalize the Strait of Hormuz would remove one of the biggest geopolitical risks hanging over traditional and cryptocurrency markets. This could shift the narrative away from “war hedging” trades in gold and oil to structural stories like Bitcoin ETF adoption, Ethereum’s roadmap, and the broader on-chain capital turnover that crypto.news has tracked in recent coverage, including this one. Analysis of ETF flowsA Safe haven comparisonAnd driven by the whole Market forecast.
