Calci raised $1 billion this week at a $22 billion valuation, one of the largest financings to date in prediction markets. Meanwhile, the CFTC closed its public comment window on forecasting market regulation after receiving more than 1,500 submissions.
Singapore Summit: Meet the top APAC brokers you know (and those you don’t know yet!).
These developments have highlighted the same basic trend: prediction markets are growing fast enough to attract institutional capital, while regulators and industry groups are still arguing about what these products actually are.
What drives prediction markets?
This week Kalshi closes $1 billion at a valuation of $22 billion
On May 7, Calci announced a $1 billion Series F round The company is valued at $22 billion – one of the largest financings to date in the prediction markets. Calcium now represents more than 90% of prediction market activity in the United States.
The funding will be used to expand crowd trading, build institutional integration, and expand the platform’s relationships with professional trading firms and financial institutions.
CFTC review reveals division over what prediction markets are
the The CFTC has closed its public comment window on predictive market regulation With over 1,500 entries, revealing a sharp divide on how event contracts are categorized.
Industry participants, including Coinbase and Kalshi, have argued that prediction markets function as financial derivatives linked to price discovery and hedging. State gaming regulators and consumer groups have argued the opposite: that these products are effectively gambling products regulated as financial products.
This week, the CFTC also… The company has opened a review of its reporting framework for traders’ liabilitiesThis brings prediction market platforms closer to the transparency standards used in traditional commodity markets.
Flutter bets on prediction markets as a market maker
Flutter Entertainment said this week that it is It already generates revenue from prediction markets As a market maker. CEO Peter Jackson said the company uses existing pricing infrastructure to offer event contracts and earn revenue from the spread between buy and sell orders.
Flutter acts as a liquidity provider as prediction markets increasingly attract companies built on pricing, inventory management, and risk infrastructure.
Quote of the week
The gambling industry frames prediction markets not as financial products, but as a way to bypass state sports betting laws. The American Gaming Association put its position straight this week:
New data from @EilersKrejcik It shows that the majority of sports prediction market activity occurs in states where online sports betting remains illegal.
This is a blatant rejection of the decisions of voters and state laws that have chosen not to legalize online sports betting.
Reads… pic.twitter.com/9yhD0yN8dF
— American Gaming Association (@AmericanGaming) May 6, 2026
Week number
800% is the increase in institutional trading volume on Kalshi over the past six months, which was revealed alongside the company’s $1 billion funding round on May 7. This number reflects how quickly prediction markets are attracting institutional participation.
Friction of the week
Prediction markets are expanding faster than the political framework surrounding them.
everything It raised $1 billion this week at a valuation of $22 billion, while the weekly forecast market size exceeded $7 billion.
Prediction markets are heating up.
It closed last week with a weekly trading volume of over $7 billion, just $350 million away from the current all-time high and setting a new record.@everything It once again topped the week with a virtual trading volume of approximately $3.8 billion, representing approximately 54% of the total and… pic.twitter.com/MrxRRhao0O
-Martins (@wogaam) May 4, 2026
At the same time, lawmakers have pushed for restrictions on the very categories of contracts that drive most of this activity. This pressure reflects a broader disagreement about what prediction markets actually are.
For the industry, event contracts are financial products associated with price discovery and hedging. To critics — including state gaming groups and many lawmakers — they operate more like sports betting or gambling products that operate within a financial derivatives framework.
This distinction determines who regulates the market, where it may operate, and what rules apply. As platforms expand institutionally and move into commodities and perpetual futures, the gap between these interpretations becomes more difficult to contain.
Bottom line
This week showed how quickly prediction markets can move into the financial mainstream. Calci raised institutional capital on a scale typically associated with established exchanges, while positioning prediction market filters as another venue for market making and spread capture.
At the same time, the regulatory debate intensified. The CFTC’s suspension process has exposed a fundamental divide between companies that view event contracts as financial derivatives and critics who see them as gambling products operating under a federal veil.
The central question is whether Prediction markets They will eventually be regulated like financial markets or gambling products.
Calci raised $1 billion this week at a $22 billion valuation, one of the largest financings to date in prediction markets. Meanwhile, the CFTC closed its public comment window on forecasting market regulation after receiving more than 1,500 submissions.
Singapore Summit: Meet the top APAC brokers you know (and those you don’t know yet!).
These developments have highlighted the same basic trend: prediction markets are growing fast enough to attract institutional capital, while regulators and industry groups are still arguing about what these products actually are.
What drives prediction markets?
This week Kalshi closes $1 billion at a valuation of $22 billion
On May 7, Calci announced a $1 billion Series F round The company is valued at $22 billion – one of the largest financings to date in the prediction markets. Calcium now represents more than 90% of prediction market activity in the United States.
The funding will be used to expand crowd trading, build institutional integration, and expand the platform’s relationships with professional trading firms and financial institutions.
CFTC review reveals division over what prediction markets are
the The CFTC has closed its public comment window on predictive market regulation With over 1,500 entries, revealing a sharp divide on how event contracts are categorized.
Industry participants, including Coinbase and Kalshi, have argued that prediction markets function as financial derivatives linked to price discovery and hedging. State gaming regulators and consumer groups have argued the opposite: that these products are effectively gambling products regulated as financial products.
This week, the CFTC also… The company has opened a review of its reporting framework for traders’ liabilitiesThis brings prediction market platforms closer to the transparency standards used in traditional commodity markets.
Flutter bets on prediction markets as a market maker
Flutter Entertainment said this week that it is It already generates revenue from prediction markets As a market maker. CEO Peter Jackson said the company uses existing pricing infrastructure to offer event contracts and earn revenue from the spread between buy and sell orders.
Flutter acts as a liquidity provider as prediction markets increasingly attract companies built on pricing, inventory management, and risk infrastructure.
Quote of the week
The gambling industry frames prediction markets not as financial products, but as a way to bypass state sports betting laws. The American Gaming Association put its position straight this week:
New data from @EilersKrejcik It shows that the majority of sports prediction market activity occurs in states where online sports betting remains illegal.
This is a blatant rejection of the decisions of voters and state laws that have chosen not to legalize online sports betting.
Reads… pic.twitter.com/9yhD0yN8dF
— American Gaming Association (@AmericanGaming) May 6, 2026
Week number
800% is the increase in institutional trading volume on Kalshi over the past six months, which was revealed alongside the company’s $1 billion funding round on May 7. This number reflects how quickly prediction markets are attracting institutional participation.
Friction of the week
Prediction markets are expanding faster than the political framework surrounding them.
everything It raised $1 billion this week at a valuation of $22 billion, while the weekly forecast market size exceeded $7 billion.
Prediction markets are heating up.
It closed last week with a weekly trading volume of over $7 billion, just $350 million away from the current all-time high and setting a new record.@everything It once again topped the week with a virtual trading volume of approximately $3.8 billion, representing approximately 54% of the total and… pic.twitter.com/MrxRRhao0O
-Martins (@wogaam) May 4, 2026
At the same time, lawmakers have pushed for restrictions on the very categories of contracts that drive most of this activity. This pressure reflects a broader disagreement about what prediction markets actually are.
For the industry, event contracts are financial products associated with price discovery and hedging. To critics — including state gaming groups and many lawmakers — they operate more like sports betting or gambling products that operate within a financial derivatives framework.
This distinction determines who regulates the market, where it may operate, and what rules apply. As platforms expand institutionally and move into commodities and perpetual futures, the gap between these interpretations becomes more difficult to contain.
Bottom line
This week showed how quickly prediction markets can move into the financial mainstream. Calci raised institutional capital on a scale typically associated with established exchanges, while positioning prediction market filters as another venue for market making and spread capture.
At the same time, the regulatory debate intensified. The CFTC’s suspension process has exposed a fundamental divide between companies that view event contracts as financial derivatives and critics who see them as gambling products operating under a federal veil.
The central question is whether Prediction markets They will eventually be regulated like financial markets or gambling products.
