Donald Trump gave traders another ugly moment in the market on Monday, fanning the flames of classic insider trading rumors for him and all his friends.
Trump had posted on the Truth Social website the following: “I am pleased to inform you that, over the past two days, the United States of America and the country of Iran have had very good and productive discussions regarding a complete and comprehensive solution to hostilities in the Middle East.”
Not even an hour had passed before the Iranian state-backed media announced the announcement He sarcastically denied everything Trump said, promising that there will be no talks and that there will never be a ceasefire on any table.
Although the news covered Trump’s alleged lies about a ceasefire with Iran, what many may have missed is that before Trump announced those talks, insiders quickly opened long positions in stocks and then short positions in oil.
At around 6:50 a.m. in Washington, D.C., S&P 500 e-Mini futures on the CME suddenly saw stocks surge. Amount. Pre-market trading was quiet, so the jump stopped immediately.
Around the same time, May WTI futures also saw a clear uptick in trading activity. Oil was also quiet, and then trading volume picked up there as well.
About 15 minutes after the sites opened, Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States and Iran had held talks and that the planned attacks had been stopped. Immediately afterward, S&P 500 futures rose more than 2.5% before the bell, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell nearly 6%.
Early trading sent stocks higher and oil lower before Trump spoke
This sequence caught the attention of traders because there was no clear general reason for those trades at 6:50 a.m. Futures markets are typically weaker early in the morning, so a sudden buy or sell may appear larger than it would later in the day.
However, it was hard to ignore. Anyone who bought a chunk of stock futures and sold or shorted crude oil futures just before Trump took office would have made a lot of money in a matter of minutes.
This pattern has become fully developed, and is equally insulting to the most powerful country in the world.
Back on April 2, during Trump’s call Liberation day tariff eventThe press conference was scheduled for 4 p.m. Eastern time. But after speaking for a while, Trump did not provide the real tariff details until after the markets had already closed at 4:30 p.m.
He then said those tariffs would begin shortly after midnight on Saturday, April 5, when markets would also be closed. This meant that traders had to sit with the news rather than react in real time during normal market hours.
A week later, after an intense run for stocks, Trump posted minutes after the market opened at 9:30 a.m. ET, “Be calm! Everything will go well,” and “This is a good time to buy!!”
The next day, after markets fell to their lowest levels of the year, he announced a 90-day moratorium on almost all tariffs above 10%. Then stocks posted their best day since 2008.
Trump continued to drop major policy news when markets were most vulnerable
The same custom appeared again later in the year, on Friday, October 10, when Trump announced 130% tariffs on China 20 minutes after markets closed for the weekend. These tariffs were scheduled to begin on Saturday, November 1, when markets were closed again.
Then on January 21, 20 minutes before markets opened, Trump said during an overseas trip that he would not try to seize Greenland using “excessive force.” This came just after stocks had their worst day since October, while the dollar had its worst day since August.
After Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April, the S&P 500 fell 12%, and later, after he rolled back some of those policies via social media, the index rose 37% through the end of the year.
As you probably know, this embarrassing habit has given traders a nickname for the setup: the TACO trade, short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
