DraftKings filed its first event contract forms with the CFTC this week. Meanwhile, US authorities have accused a Google employee of using confidential company data to trade on BulliMarket, while the gambling industry has intensified its criticism of prediction markets.
Here’s what matters this week.
The insider who knew a lot
On May 27, US authorities have charged a Google employee With the use of confidential company data to trade on Polymarket. According to the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michele Spagnuolo used non-public information about Google’s annual search rankings to place a series of highly profitable bets in prediction markets, earning approximately $1.2 million.
The case led to criminal and civil charges, making it one of the most high-profile insider trading actions involving a market forecasting platform.
The case gives regulators a concrete example of the risks of insider trading they have been warning about as prediction markets move further toward the financial mainstream.
DraftKings is moving to the CFTC model
DraftKings is expanding its reach into federally regulated event contracts through its DKeX exchange. On May 22, The company submitted the first event contract forms With the CFTC, covering a range of sports-related markets.
Listing of contracts is expected to begin after May 27. Unlike traditional sports betting books, DKeX operates as a designated contract market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This structure allows event contracts to be offered under a single federal framework rather than separate state-level betting licenses.
The move highlights a broader shift in the industry. Rather than expanding through state-by-state sports betting approvals, companies are increasingly exploring whether prediction markets can expand more efficiently through federal derivatives regulation.
DraftKings Exchange (DKeX) says in a newly published CFTC filing that its market maker program will go into effect on June 8. Almost all details are confidential. Below are the publicly available fees posted on its website. pic.twitter.com/rv59kRmCGy
– Fairplaygov (@fairplaygov) May 28, 2026
The rulebook is finally coming
On May 26, The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has officially submitted its proposal for prediction markets For White House review, and begin the federal rulemaking process. The contents of the proposal have not been published. But this step represents a shift from enforcement and litigation to formal regulation.
Over the past two years, Prediction markets It expanded through court battles, no-action letters, and agency directives. Platforms have built compliance programs largely by interpreting how existing derivatives rules apply to event contracts. This process is now moving to a new stage.
Whatever eventually emerges from the CFTC’s rulemaking efforts is likely to become the basis for how prediction markets operate in the United States.
Quote of the week
The gambling industry is becoming more clear about it Criticism of prediction markets. American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller argued this week that the growth of event contracts is already impacting state tax revenues and tribal gaming operations.
“This is about states and tribes today losing literally $1 billion in revenue to states and tribes that would otherwise go to fund important community projects.” — Bill Miller, President and CEO of the American Gaming Association, He said On CNBC Squawk Box.
Week number
24 billion dollars It is the combined monthly trading volume across Calci and PolyMarket, according to data reported by the Pew Research Center.
Less than a year ago, the two platforms transacted less than $5 billion per month. Today, the total volume is approaching $24 billion – one of the reasons why regulators, brokers, gambling operators and exchanges are all competing to shape the next prediction markets.
Global monthly aggregate daily trading volume #everything and #polymarketThe value of the two leading forecasting markets has risen from less than $5 billion to nearly $24 billion in less than a year.
Prediction markets allow people to trade based on the outcomes of real-life events, starting with basketball… pic.twitter.com/6YJvAggspg
– Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) May 27, 2026
Bottom line
This week showed three pieces of the same puzzle. The Google case showed why regulators want to establish formal rules around prediction markets.
DraftKings’ CFTC filings showed why companies increasingly want a federal framework rather than regulating gambling individually. The CFTC’s rulemaking proposal showed that the agency is finally moving from enforcement and litigation toward writing those rules.
The debate over whether prediction markets are gambling products or financial derivatives is still far from settled. But the market is already built on the assumption that federal regulation will determine its future.
DraftKings filed its first event contract forms with the CFTC this week. Meanwhile, US authorities have accused a Google employee of using confidential company data to trade on BulliMarket, while the gambling industry has intensified its criticism of prediction markets.
Here’s what matters this week.
The insider who knew a lot
On May 27, US authorities have charged a Google employee With the use of confidential company data to trade on Polymarket. According to the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michele Spagnuolo used non-public information about Google’s annual search rankings to place a series of highly profitable bets in prediction markets, earning approximately $1.2 million.
The case led to criminal and civil charges, making it one of the most high-profile insider trading actions involving a market forecasting platform.
The case gives regulators a concrete example of the risks of insider trading they have been warning about as prediction markets move further toward the financial mainstream.
DraftKings is moving to the CFTC model
DraftKings is expanding its reach into federally regulated event contracts through its DKeX exchange. On May 22, The company submitted the first event contract forms With the CFTC, covering a range of sports-related markets.
Listing of contracts is expected to begin after May 27. Unlike traditional sports betting books, DKeX operates as a designated contract market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This structure allows event contracts to be offered under a single federal framework rather than separate state-level betting licenses.
The move highlights a broader shift in the industry. Rather than expanding through state-by-state sports betting approvals, companies are increasingly exploring whether prediction markets can expand more efficiently through federal derivatives regulation.
DraftKings Exchange (DKeX) says in a newly published CFTC filing that its market maker program will go into effect on June 8. Almost all details are confidential. Below are the publicly available fees posted on its website. pic.twitter.com/rv59kRmCGy
– Fairplaygov (@fairplaygov) May 28, 2026
The rulebook is finally coming
On May 26, The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has officially submitted its proposal for prediction markets For White House review, and begin the federal rulemaking process. The contents of the proposal have not been published. But this step represents a shift from enforcement and litigation to formal regulation.
Over the past two years, Prediction markets It expanded through court battles, no-action letters, and agency directives. Platforms have built compliance programs largely by interpreting how existing derivatives rules apply to event contracts. This process is now moving to a new stage.
Whatever eventually emerges from the CFTC’s rulemaking efforts is likely to become the basis for how prediction markets operate in the United States.
Quote of the week
The gambling industry is becoming more clear about it Criticism of prediction markets. American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller argued this week that the growth of event contracts is already impacting state tax revenues and tribal gaming operations.
“This is about states and tribes today losing literally $1 billion in revenue to states and tribes that would otherwise go to fund important community projects.” — Bill Miller, President and CEO of the American Gaming Association, He said On CNBC Squawk Box.
Week number
24 billion dollars It is the combined monthly trading volume across Calci and PolyMarket, according to data reported by the Pew Research Center.
Less than a year ago, the two platforms transacted less than $5 billion per month. Today, the total volume is approaching $24 billion – one of the reasons why regulators, brokers, gambling operators and exchanges are all competing to shape the next prediction markets.
Global monthly aggregate daily trading volume #everything and #polymarketThe value of the two leading forecasting markets has risen from less than $5 billion to nearly $24 billion in less than a year.
Prediction markets allow people to trade based on the outcomes of real-life events, starting with basketball… pic.twitter.com/6YJvAggspg
– Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) May 27, 2026
Bottom line
This week showed three pieces of the same puzzle. The Google case showed why regulators want to establish formal rules around prediction markets.
DraftKings’ CFTC filings showed why companies increasingly want a federal framework rather than regulating gambling individually. The CFTC’s rulemaking proposal showed that the agency is finally moving from enforcement and litigation toward writing those rules.
The debate over whether prediction markets are gambling products or financial derivatives is still far from settled. But the market is already built on the assumption that federal regulation will determine its future.
