Prediction markets estimate the odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law this year at 59%, down from 68% after the Senate committee vote earlier this month.
The slide reflects growing uncertainty over a bill that the cryptocurrency industry had hoped Congress would clear before the end of the year.
A slim margin in the Senate
The Senate Banking Committee advanced The law of clarity in May, but the vote was far from a show of widespread support. Only two Democratic lawmakers joined Republicans in supporting the bill, raising questions about whether it could clear the entire Senate floor without changes.
Committee Chairman Tim Scott described the vote as bipartisan. Critics say two votes hardly qualify.
The bill still needs the approval of both houses of Congress and the signature of US President Donald Trump before it enters into force. This path now seems longer than encryption The industry was expecting.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, appeared on Fox Business this week and explained that the banking sector has done just that. There are no plans to stand aside.
He said banks will continue to fight the current version of the bill, citing provisions that he believes give cryptocurrency companies an unfair advantage over traditional financial institutions.
Basic conflict
There are two main points on the subject. Dimon said the bill effectively allows cryptocurrency companies to pay interest on customer deposits and stablecoin balances — something banks consider… Direct competition On their turf.
Him too Argue The bill does not require cryptocurrency service providers to have the same anti-money laundering rules, Bank Secrecy Act requirements, and capital reserve standards that banks must meet.
His solution was clear and straightforward: if cryptocurrency companies wanted to offer yielding accounts, they would have to obtain a banking charter and follow the same rules. He said no one in the banking industry would accept the bill as written.
Armstrong in goal
Dimon also directed pointed comments at Coinbase and its CEO, Brian Armstrongwho was at the center of the lobbying effort to push the bill through Congress. Dimon admitted that the banks might lose the battle, but said that the opposition would not back down no matter what.
Armstrong’s role in the negotiations has drawn attention from both sides of the debate, with reports indicating that Coinbase has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on lobbying efforts in Washington.
The bill’s fate now depends on whether it can win over enough senators before the end of the year.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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