CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warns that Bitcoin’s bear market could extend into early 2027, based on on-chain profit and loss data.
summary
- Ki Young Jo cited CryptoQuant’s PnL indicator signal, which shows that an investor’s profitability typically declines for 18 months after the start of a profit-taking streak.
- This trend began in October 2025, putting the potential bear market bottom in early 2027 based on historical patterns.
- A true reversal would require unrealized profits to rise while realized profits to fall simultaneously, a signal that has not yet appeared.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Joo to publish On
“Once a series of profit taking occurs, the P&L for Bitcoin investors typically declines for about 18 months,” Joe wrote. “Since the trend change began in October 2025, the bear market could continue until early 2027. The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We are not there yet.”
What the PnL indicator shows
Ju’s analysis is based on CryptoQuant’s PnL indicator, a 365-day moving average that tracks investor profitability cycles. The index peaked in late 2025 in a pattern that closely matches the peaks recorded before the long bearish phases of 2014, 2018 and 2022. Each of these periods saw sharp and sustained declines once the signal moved from its peak.
Bitcoin was trading near $73,000 at press time, down about 30% from its 2025 highs, amid rising macroeconomic pressures from rising US Treasury yields and broader risk-off sentiment across markets. like crypto.news reportedBearish social commentary on Bitcoin reached a 2026 high earlier in April as spot demand weakened.
The reversal signal Joe describes requires a specific combination that has not yet been achieved: unrealized profit margins should begin to rise while realized profits simultaneously decline, indicating that selling pressure is exhausting itself and buyers are regaining control. Until this pattern emerges, Joe believes the bear is in good health.
Not all analysts share the extended timeline. VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck He told CNBC Earlier this year, Bitcoin may have formed the bottom of the cycle, pointing to options market stabilization and slowing long-term holder selling as early constructive signs. Coinbase noted in its April 2026 monthly report that price support could emerge between May and June, which could lead to a stronger third quarter.
How does Bitcoin recover from this level?
For a sustainable recovery, Joe pointed to two critical demand drivers: renewed inflows from spot bitcoin ETFs and increased activity from over-the-counter institutional desks, both of which have slowed in recent months. ETF flows remained positive but at a normal pace compared to the surge seen in early 2025.
Data on the string from Cryptoquant It shows that capital flows into Bitcoin continue to rise, but the market cap has not responded proportionately. This divergence, where money enters the market but prices stagnate or decline, is the hallmark of a bear market in the Joe framework.
Bitcoin’s current price is consolidating near the $73,000 level, with CoinGlass identifying $74,200 and $74,500 as key resistance areas where large sell orders are accumulating. The potential passage of the Clarity Act remains one of the most cited institutional triggers that analysts believe can shift sentiment, although Joe’s “lose-lose” model operates independently of policy timelines.
