Bitcoin’s failure to follow the broader rise in risk assets for two straight weeks is causing pain for short-term ETF holders, but a very different signal is emerging from the over-the-counter market. Market maker and OTC desk, Wintermute, says long-term funds have begun buying BTC in tranches through over-the-counter trading, and view current levels as attractive over 18 months. The observation comes as nearly $2 billion has flowed from ETFs into Bitcoin and Ethereum, while new capital has chased AI stocks and small caps, according to the site. Original market update.
The steady demand per block on OTC desks often reflects deep-pocketed investors building positions without weighting the exchange’s order books. This type of accumulation can reduce the supply of liquidity long before it shows up in spot price action. Wintermute frames the buying as conviction-based rather than a short-term trade, which is the kind of positioning you see when funds are allocated with a multi-year view.
Important support area
Wintermute has marked a key bearish support range between $60,000 and $65,000. This area is important not only as a technical level but because it likely corresponds to on-chain cost rules and historical accumulation ranges. If this continues, OTC buying could be a floor below the current mill price. But the flip side is clear: a total shock that breaks through this range would test the patience of even the most patient distributors.
For those who track institutional infrastructure, the fact that OTC desks are driving consistent demand is a sign of the market’s maturity. The institutional toolkit has expanded rapidly, with… Weekly markup and on-chain settlement milestones This makes it easier for traditional funds to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies without touching central exchanges. Over-the-counter trading is a natural next step for distributors who want to avoid slippage and get ahead.
Outflows from ETFs offset OTC inflows
The $2 billion that bled out of BTC and ETH ETFs over the same two-week period tells a parallel story. ETF flows are strongly influenced by sentiment and momentum; Over-the-counter buying via long-term funds is not. Divergence does not guarantee an imminent price reversal, but it does raise questions about how much of the recent selling is fleeting.
When ETF outflows dominate the headlines, it’s easy to miss the quiet situation happening far beyond the tape. This does not mean that caution is unwarranted. If AI trading continues to suck liquidity out of risky assets, Bitcoin may struggle to hold $60,000 no matter how much smart money is accumulated. An 18-month time horizon is a luxury that most ETF traders do not have.
AI turnover and regulatory noise
The capital moving from crypto ETFs to AI stocks and penny stocks has parallels within the digital asset space itself. Projects linking AI and Web3 continue to attract the attention of developers and projects even as liquid crypto assets stall. One recent example is UXLINK and Origins Network partner to deliver scalable AI infrastructure on decentralized railsa sign that the topic of artificial intelligence has not been exhausted in the field of cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, regulatory friction in Washington adds another layer of uncertainty. with Banks are trying to block the largest cryptocurrency bill in US history With just days before the Senate vote, the gap between near-term political noise and the multi-year buildup is widening. Longer-term buyers may price in a future where the regulatory picture is clearer, but the path there remains bumpy.
What to watch
Right now, the market is moving in two opposite directions. Visible ETF flows indicate risk aversion, while OTC desks indicate patient buying at what Wintermute considers attractive long-term levels. The next test is whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000-$65,000 support without a new catalyst. OTC trading volume data is not published in real time, so the only measure in time will be how the spot price reacts around that area.
The difference also highlights how cryptocurrencies are maturing from a singular narrative into a market where different pools of capital operate on very different time frames. This makes top-line ETF numbers less useful as an independent signal. The smart money seems to be quietly buying the dip. Whether that translates into a floor or a trap depends on the overall forces currently moving toward AI.
