Galaxy Digital has launched a corporate OTC forecasting desk, opening the service with a $10 million event swap linked to the Digital Assets Market Clarity Act.
summary
- Galaxy has launched an institutional desk for over-the-counter (OTC) prediction markets with a $10 million event swap with Arca.
- The first trade allows Arca to take a position on whether the CLARITY Act will pass before 2027.
- Galaxy said the desk will support large trades in Kalshi and Polymarket that public order books cannot accommodate.
Galaxy said on Tuesday that the office operates within its Global Markets unit and serves institutional clients seeking exposure to non-sporting event contracts on Calci and Polymarket without relying solely on public order books. The Nasdaq-listed digital asset company said it will act as a primary counterparty, allowing it to price large binary trades and bear the risk on its own book.
The first deal involved cryptocurrency hedge fund Arca, which used the structure to take a position on whether The law of clarity It passes before 2027. Under the event swap, Arca pays Galaxy Digital if the bill becomes law before that deadline, while Galaxy pays Arca if it doesn’t.
Galaxy Digital targets block size predictive market trading
According to GalaxyThe new desk is designed for trading volumes that existing market order books cannot easily accommodate. The company said it can also pair event positions with hedges in stocks and commodities, giving institutional clients a way to structure trades around political, regulatory and macro events.
Prediction markets generated more than $60 billion in volume in 2026, according to a Galaxy release. However, the company said liquidity remains limited for larger tickets, as a $10 million order could impact pricing before fulfillment is complete.
Prediction markets currently offer one of the most appropriate ways to hedge against CLARITY, Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, said in the statement. He added that the market does not yet have enough institutional liquidity for a fund of Arca’s size.
The law of clarity opens the office
The opening swap is tied to the Kalshi binary market under the Digital Asset Market Clarity Law, where Yes shares trade between $0 and $1 based on the market’s implied probability of passing. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on a 15-9 vote on May 14, moving it closer to a potential vote, Galaxy said.
The Galaxy Research Bureau currently assigns a 75% probability of passage for the bill and estimates a signing date during the week of August 3. Kalshi and Polymarket traders have priced in the same result between 50% and 73% over the past month, the company said.
Jason Urban, global co-head of digital assets at Galaxy, said event-driven markets have become important tools for sophisticated investors expressing their macro views. He said Galaxy Digital It offers clients a primary counterparty that can store and execute risks at a reasonable size.
The move puts Galaxy alongside other trading companies entering prediction markets this year. Jump Trading and Wintermute began their official activity in this sector earlier, with Wintermute broadcasting two-sided quotes last month.
Galaxy’s role is different from that of a market maker which focuses on lower spreads. The company said its desk is designed to accommodate trades that are too large for the exchange’s books.
Institutional interest is building around Calci and Polymarket
Like Elche and Polymarket She has reported a rapid rise in activity. Combined monthly trading volume on the two platforms rose from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April, according to figures cited in the Galaxy release.
Calci said last month that its annual enterprise volume rose 800% over six months to $178 billion, as it announced a $1 billion increase at a valuation of $22 billion. InterContinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is also backing Polymarket with $2 billion in funding.
