Bitcoin lost the $69,000 level as selling pressure and market uncertainty combined to test the resilience of a market that has now given much of its recovery back from the cycle lows. The collapse is uncomfortable – and analyst MorenoDV has identified a signal in the supply data that places the current moment in a longer-term structural context spanning a decade of Bitcoin market cycles.
The supply at Bitcoin’s loss is currently 40.6% – meaning that more than four out of every ten units of Bitcoin’s circulating value is held by participants whose cost basis is above the current price. The gauge measures the share of supply circulating underwater at any given moment, and its current reading reflects the pain that the correction from the highs of the cycle has distributed across the base of the stand.
But raw percentage isn’t the most important element of what MorenoDV’s analysis reveals. The real story is the long-term pattern behind the scale’s highs — a structural observation that requires looking at the entire history of major Bitcoin cycle lows rather than any one reading in isolation.
Since 2015, every major decline in Bitcoin’s cycle has occurred when the supply at a loss pushed into the upper band of the downtrend line. More importantly, each successive cycle bottom requires a smaller percentage of supply in loss than the one before it – a pattern of diminishing pain at successive lows that describes how Bitcoin works. market The structure has evolved as the asset matures and its holder base deepens.
Each cycle of bottoming was less painful than the last
Moreno DV analysis It traces the downward loss threshold across the entire recent history of the Bitcoin market to reveal the structural evolution that makes the current reading of 40.6% more significant than the raw number suggests.
Bitcoin’s early cycles required extreme pain to create true bottoms – more than 60% of the circulating supply was underwater before capitulating creating the conditions necessary for a recovery. Cycle lows formed from 2018 to 2019 and 2020 to 2022 with progressively lower loss thresholds as the bearer base matures and conviction deepens. Now the same structural trend line lies near the high 40% territory – reflecting a market where ETFs, institutions, long-term bondholders, and high-conviction participants have replaced weaker hands that previously needed to be fully exhausted before bottoms could form.
Bitcoin Supply in Loss | Source: CryptoQuant
The current reading of 40.6% puts Bitcoin in a significant pressure zone without yet reaching the historical maximum opportunity zone. Continued weakness or extended consolidation that prompts the supply at a loss to retest the downtrend line would put the market in a zone repeatedly marked by large accumulation windows across a decade of cycles.
The psychological mechanism behind the signal is what gives it its future significance. A rise in supply at a loss moves markets from optimism to skepticism and from skepticism to forced patience – a sequence that exhausts reactive sellers and creates the conditions in which long-term capital begins to absorb supply at scale.
Bottoms do not form immediately when this area is reached. Historical antecedents include ups and downs, false crashes, and emotional exhaustion before recovery begins. But from a risk-reward perspective, a retest of this decade-long structure represents one of the most important signals Bitcoin can generate — and MorenoDV’s analysis suggests the market is approaching that zone rather than departing from it.
Bitcoin loses key weekly support as bears target lower demand zone
Bitcoin is trading near $69,600 on the weekly time frame after losing the critical $72,000-$75,000 support zone that served as the basis for the recovery rally from the March lows. The breakout is technically important because this area has served as resistance and support for the past three months, making its loss a clear deterioration in the market structure.
Bitcoin testing weekly support zone | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
The weekly chart shows BTC rejecting from the $82,000 area before reversing sharply lower. This rejection has led to a lower rally compared to the cycle peak near $123,000, and reinforced the broader downtrend that has been in place since late 2025. Even more worrying for the bulls is that the price has now fallen below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, both of which are beginning to stabilize after months of weakness.
From a structural perspective, the next major support is between $64,000 and $66,000, which is highlighted by the lower yellow area on the chart. This area served as a major accumulation range after the capitulation event in February and represents the most important demand area on the weekly time frame.
For Bitcoin to stabilize, the bulls must quickly reclaim the lost range of $72,000-$75,000. Until that happens, the path of least resistance remains, with the market increasingly focused on whether the $64,000-$66,000 area can provide the basis for a permanent bottom.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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