Bitcoin is back in the danger zone, with prices falling to their lowest level since January on Thursday after selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market intensified.
Bitcoin is currently at $63,300, down over 16% over the week. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has lost about 13% and dropped to the $67,000 area. This is a long way from the high reached above $120,000 last October. From that peak, Bitcoin has now fallen more than 45%.
Traders Bet Bitcoin Could Drop Below $60,000 as Six-Figure Odds Continue to Shrink
Calci traders now see the current stretch as a full-blown “crypto winter,” leading to more pain, not a clean recovery. The platform shows a roughly 80% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 in 2026. This would put the price below its February low, when Bitcoin fell to $60,062.
The negative bets don’t stop there. Calci traders also give it a 52% chance of falling below $50,000 this year. The last time Bitcoin traded at the top of its price was in August 2024.
The excitement about Bitcoin regaining $100,000 has faded. Kalshi traders believe the chance of reaching this mark by 2026 is only 27%. In early May alone, the odds were nearly 50%, so there has been a huge shift in perception in less than a month.
At Polymarket, traders see there only a 12% chance that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026. Pressure is also coming from macro markets.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose again to above 4.45%. Traders now see there is more than a 50% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of the year. Interest rate cuts are no longer priced into expectations. The US dollar index is still above 99.
This is a rough setting for risky assets, and Bitcoin took the hit harder than most. US Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $4.21 billion over three weeks. This is the largest institutional redemption streak of 2026.
Big money is cutting back now, even before there is any real price recovery. Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be very crucial. If job numbers are strong, selling pressure may continue. If they come out weak, it could finally give the market a break.
On-chain data puts Bitcoin between $77,800 resistance and $53,900 support
Meanwhile, on the chain, there is Bitcoin He fell Far from the true market average of $77,800. This level tracks the average cost of actively changing currencies. Traders often use it as a line between stronger and weaker market phases.
The current bottom zone is at the realized price of $53,900, which is the average cost of all the coins out there. Since Bitcoin’s price is $63,000, it falls in the middle of these values. Since it has not stayed above the true market average, the bear market setup is still in place.
Things aren’t looking great for short-term holders either, as they have a cost basis of around $76,400, which is also above that average, and the last time that happened was in January 2022.
New buyers are now at the initial valuation level, so time is testing their patience. We typically see this scenario at the end of a bear market, where holders of weaker positions or longer-term holdings are exposed.
The options market is also worried. One-month implied volatility is around 42%, and realized volatility is at around 32%. So, the volatility risk premium is at a three-month high.
While spot trading is challenging, options traders believe things will get better. As the price of Bitcoin fell below critical support, implied volatility rose significantly, indicating high demand for security through options.
Put options remain more expensive than put calls. With the deviation calculated by minus puts and calls, positive readings indicate that deflation protection still costs more. For one month, three months, and six months, this gap is about 13% to 14%.
