Something is happening to Bitcoin today as news reports indicate that the highest bidders in Bitcoin sold nearly $2.4 billion in the past two days alone. This is defined by on-chain analysis as those held for at least 155 days, with 26% of all bitcoins sold over the past 30 days coming from investors who received more than $90,000 worth of coins.
The moves coincide with prices falling 12% week to date from an all-time high in October above $126,000, while net assets of spot ETFs collapsed to $82.83 billion from $107.8 billion.
source: SoSoValue
Compounding the pressures, weak US jobs data, including a February revision that showed nearly 92,000 job losses, triggered institutional risk management programs that accelerated sell-offs across high-beta assets, with Bitcoin absorbing huge outflows relative to equities.
The analytical question is no longer whether long-term shareholders are giving up; Rather, it is whether this group’s behavior at local lows constitutes a final cycle consistent with the formation of the historical bottom, or reflects a structural deterioration in conviction extending the bear phase far beyond what previous cycle analogues might suggest.
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Bitcoin News Today: LTH-SOPR and supply at loss, what on-chain data actually shows
The key on-chain signal noted by Compass Point analyst Ed Engel is a behavioral one: Long holders were largely inactive from February to April, then turned into net sellers in recent weeks as Bitcoin approached new cycle lows.
Engel noted This shift has “significant implications for the supply-demand balance of Bitcoin,” a transfer mechanism that is straightforward in terms of structure but important in terms of timing, since this group absorbed all previous withdrawals without surrendering.
The Output Spent Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR), which measures whether long-term holders are making gains or losses on coins spent, has moved into sub-1.0 territory, confirming that a significant share of this group is now selling at a loss.
The high supply of long-term shareholders masks a larger problem.
The buyers who led this cycle are no longer accumulating.
Whale stocks are shrinking, and dolphin populations continue to decline. pic.twitter.com/mbFYYX8bKe
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) June 1, 2026
Research synthesis Glassnode data It is estimated that approximately 39-43% of the total supply of Bitcoin is currently underwater, approaching the 50-55% area marked by historical final cycle lows across the January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022 lows.
Current estimates put 11.1 million bitcoins at profit Compared to a loss of 8.9 million bitcoins, a gap that was completely closed in previous sessions at the lowest structural level before the accumulation began.
Fidelity cycle analysis indicates that the current drawdown from the October peak is at approximately 52%, which is shallower than the 77-85% declines seen in previous bear markets, yet several deep on-chain value metrics, including the MVRV Z-Score and Long-Term Owner Supply in Loss, are simultaneously flashing readings that have historically only appeared at major lows.
One composite measure, identified in a BeInCrypto synthesis of on-chain data, tracks about 1.5 standard deviations negative from its mean near the $62,000 level, an area associated with previous cycle exhaustion points. Engel summed up the pattern directly: “Large buyers capitulating is a very common theme in late-cycle bear markets. This makes us more confident that a late-stage BTC bear market is in order.”
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Daniel Francis is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel brings his background in cross-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and detailed guides. It is certified by the Blockchain Council and is dedicated to providing “information gain” that cuts through the market noise to find blockchain’s real-world utility.
