Alex Thorne, head of research at Galaxy Digital, revealed that they have reduced the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year to 60%. He cited the Senate’s tight schedule as the reason for this decision, as this may make it difficult for them to schedule time to deliberate on the bill and ultimately pass it.
Galaxy Digital Lower odds of passing the Clarity Act this year
in Share XThorne shared a research note stating that they lowered the odds of a crypto bill passing this year to 60%, just two weeks after raising their estimate to 75%. He suggested the reason was mostly technical, as the Senate is running out of usable days, and that this week made it worse.
Notably, Galaxy Digital gave the CLARITY Act only a 55% chance of passing this year before the cryptocurrency bill increased last month, but raised it to 75% as the bill advanced from the Senate Banking Committee. As CoinGape reported, the bill has now been added to the Senate calendar Hint Senator Cynthia Lummis That voting may take place before the July 4 holiday.
Thorne reiterated in the research note that their concern is less about the substance of the cryptocurrency bill and more about the number of days left to act on it. Notably, cryptocurrency traders are also losing optimism that US President Donald Trump will sign the bill into law this year.
Polymarket data shows there is only a 54% chance President Trump will sign the bill into law this year, down from a high in May of about 74%. Cryptocurrency prices have coincidentally collapsed along with these odds Bitcoin collapses to $59,000 For the first time in two years.
How the picture worsened for the cryptocurrency bill
Thorne noted in his post that the Senate calendar has always been one of the biggest obstacles to the CLARITY Act, and now that picture has gotten worse. He explained that the vote to reauthorize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) failed, meaning this will likely be the focus of the Senate next week, and it comes after they already lost a week on the gun control fund.
In addition to the Senate’s tight agenda, the Galaxy Digital CEO stated that there were no reports this week outlining a path forward on outstanding issues such as ethics or illicit financing, which may indicate that they have not yet made progress. Thorne added that he remains optimistic, but timing matters a lot now, and the odds could change dramatically as the calendar moves forward.
JPMorgan also recently echoed this view, warning that the window of opportunity to pass the Clarity Act has narrowed. They pointed out that The crypto bill is now in jeopardy Of failure to pass this year, as the midterm elections constitute a major obstacle on the road.
August has emerged as a potential deadline for the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, or risk losing this legislative window as lawmakers go into a 4-week recess after the first week of August. Meanwhile, these senators will likely turn their attention to the November midterm elections after the recess.
