TLDR
- ARK Invest will use Kalshi’s prediction market data to inform its investment decisions
- The data will be used to research, manage risk and hedge portfolio positions
- Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK, described prediction markets as “a natural next step for innovation in financial research.”
- The US Federal Reserve and Cornell University have also pointed out that predictive market data is valuable
- Kalshi was recently valued at $22 billion after a $1 billion funding round
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ARK Invest, the asset management firm led by Cathie Wood, announced it will use data from Kalshi, a prediction markets platform, to help guide its investment decisions.
in @ARKInvestWe are always looking for new tools that can improve our research and improve how we make investment decisions. Prediction markets are not just a new derivatives market – they represent a powerful new way to measure risk and demonstrate forward-looking insights.
I have… https://t.co/BLFzORsaVK
– Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) March 26, 2026
The company said it plans to use the data in three main ways: supplementing its existing research with real-time market forecasts, tracking performance indicators such as trading volume, and managing risk around specific events.
ARK will also use Kalshi to hedge against outcomes that may impact its portfolio, including macroeconomic risks and sector-level exposures.
“We believe these signals can enhance our research process and provide valuable context on key drivers across disruptive sectors,” Wood said in a statement on Thursday.
ARK Research Director Nick Gross described prediction markets as providing “some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes.”
ARK also works directly with everything To list new markets on topics the company follows closely.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, confirmed that many of these markets already exist on the platform, including non-farm payrolls and deficit-to-GDP ratio markets.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets allow users to trade based on the outcomes of future events. Because real money is at stake, the theory is that prices reflect true and unbiased expectations about what will happen.
Kalshi is one of the largest regulated prediction markets in the United States. Its main competitor, Polymarketoperates primarily in the field of encryption.
Prediction markets surpassed $10 billion in monthly trading volume last year and have attracted increasing interest from institutional players.
Other institutions are paying attention
ARK isn’t alone in seeing the value in this data. Last month, researchers at the US Federal Reserve published findings claiming that Calci data can measure macroeconomic expectations better in real time than existing tools.
Calci markets provide a “high-frequency, constantly updated, distribution-rich benchmark” useful to both researchers and policy makers, the Fed researchers said.
Cornell University also studied forecast market data, using numbers from Polymarket to analyze how traders respond to real-time political events, including the 2024 presidential debates and the assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
Calci recently closed a $1 billion strategic financing round valuing the company at $22 billion.
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