TLDR
- Galaxy Digital reduced odds of passage of the CLARITY Act in 2026 from 75% to 60%
- The Senate must approve the bill before the month-long August recess, which begins in late July
- Ethics and provisions for illicit financing remain unresolved sticking points
- JPMorgan puts the odds below 50%; Some DC insiders say it’s as low as 5-30%.
- Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, down 28% in 2026 and near a 52-week low.
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60%, citing a shrinking legislative window and unresolved issues with the bill.
🚨 only in: 🇺🇸 Sin. Loomis –
“The committee has passed the Clarity Act. Next word. We have not come this far to withdraw from the 5-yard line.” pic.twitter.com/Ky9Zuf2FxY— Currency Bureau (@coinbureau) June 8, 2026
Thorne said the bill needs to be approved by the Senate before a month-long recess beginning in late July. And then, he said, “the window actually closes.”
He noted that major legislation historically falters in the lead-up to midterm elections, as lawmakers shift their focus to campaigning.
the The law of clarity It has already passed the House of Representatives. Two versions have passed the Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees. But the bill still needs at least 60 votes in the Senate to advance without lengthy debate.
Thorne identified several procedural steps that were still required: floor debate, the amendment process, reconciliation of Senate committee texts, and final House action on any changes.
“Majority Leader Thune realistically needs to schedule an appearance sometime in July,” Thorne said, adding that anything later would not be appropriate before the holiday.
Sticking points remain
Galaxy also noted that no significant progress has been made on the bill or negotiations around it. Ethics rules and illicit financing provisions remain unresolved and could cost the bill votes on the floor.
Thorne said Galaxy It will revise its estimates upward if Senate leaders stick to a vote in July and key provisions are finalized.
Galaxy isn’t alone in its caution. JPMorgan analysts said Wednesday they see less than a 50% chance the bill will pass this year, also pointing to a tight congressional timeline.
Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said Tuesday that his forecast was “less optimistic,” and that D.C. insiders he spoke with put the odds between 5% and 30%.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, is pushing hard for a vote. I made at least 15 posts on X about the bill in June alone.
“The committee has passed the Clarity Act. Next word. We have not come this far to resign at the 5-yard line,” she posted on Sunday.
What does it mean for Bitcoin
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent has called the bill “essential to the future of Bitcoin and the digital asset markets in the United States” and pushed for its passage as early as this summer.
The bill, if passed, would create a regulatory framework for digital assets. Supporters say it could give institutional investors more confidence Bitcoin And other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $63,000. It’s down 28% so far in 2026 and is approaching a 52-week low of $60,074.
If the bill does not reach the Senate floor before the August recess, its chances of passing in 2026 decline sharply.
