Sam Bankman Fried makes moves from behind bars. The disgraced FTX founder has officially applied for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump.
The market has already responded in the most crypto way possible, by sending FTT, a token tied to a collapsed exchange with no active business, directly on a purely speculative basis.
The pardon request is real and so is the token pump
Bloomberg broke the story, reporting That SBF stated from prison that he “certainly” hopes to receive a presidential pardon from Trump. He declined to say whether his family was actively lobbying for it, but the request itself has now been confirmed. At the same time, SBF reiterated its long-standing claim that it did not steal customer funds, and pointed to the fact that FTX’s creditors have now received nearly 170% of the repayment as evidence of its framing.
FTT responded immediately. The token was pumped on the back of pardon speculation, which tells you everything you need to know about where cryptocurrency sentiment is at the moment. The exchange went. Work does not exist. The token has no underlying interest. However, the market is bidding up on it because there is a non-zero chance that the man behind it will go free. This is either the height of speculative mania or a true reassessment of political risks in cryptocurrency markets, depending on how charitable you feel.
Who is SBF and what time does he spend for it
For those who need the full picture: Sam Bankman-Fried, 32, from Stanford, California, is the founder of both cryptocurrency exchange FTX and trading company Alameda Research. In 2024, he was sentenced to 25 years in prison, three years of supervised release, and ordered to forfeit $11 billion after being found guilty of multiple fraud and conspiracy charges stemming from the collapse of FTX.
The charges were not simple. SBF misappropriated billions of dollars in client funds that were deposited at FTX. He defrauded FTX investors out of more than $1.7 billion. He defrauded Alameda Research’s lenders of more than $1.3 billion. The overall scope of the fraud made it one of the largest financial crimes in U.S. history, and the 25-year prison sentence reflects that scale. He is 32 years old, and without pardon or commutation, he will not be eligible for release until his 50s.
The White House already said no in February
The obvious question is whether any of this pardon speculation has any basis in reality. As of February of this year, the White House’s answer was clear. A spokesperson flatly stated that Trump has no intention of pardoning SBF. That was months ago, and the political landscape around cryptocurrencies has changed in meaningful ways since then, but it remains the last official word from the administration on the subject.
Trump has been broadly friendly with the cryptocurrency industry during this period, which is part of the reason why pardon speculation continues to arise. The community remembers that the SBF was a major political donor, albeit one spread across both parties, and some believe there is some version of the deal to be made. The White House’s denial in February was emphatic, but a pardon is a political decision, and political decisions can change.
An alternate universe where SBF never broke the law
While the Amnesty drama takes place, A Separate topic He went viral calculating what SBF’s portfolio would be worth today if he had invested the money legitimately and never committed any fraud. The numbers are truly amazing.
His stake in Cursor, acquired for about $200,000, is worth about $3 billion today, an increase of about 1.5 million percent. His investment in Anthropic, worth about $499 million, is now worth $82.3 billion, representing a return of 16,400%. SpaceX’s $200 million entry positions are now valued at about $15 billion. His $189 million investment in Solana has risen to $5.1 billion. Robinhood, which was acquired for $612.5 million, is now worth $4.9 billion. Even Genesis Digital, its largest single bet at $1.17 billion, rose to $3.5 billion.
Add it all up, and you get an alternate universe version of Sam Bankman Fried, a guy who kept his investments and did nothing illegal, with an estimated net worth of $114 billion today. This would make him one of the richest people on earth. Instead, he is in a federal prison cell begging for clemency.
What pardon speculation means for FTT moving forward
The FTT pump is almost certainly not sustainable with its fundamentals, because there are no fundamentals. What the market is trading is a scenario, where SBF is pardoned, gets out of prison, and somehow rebuilds something meaningful in crypto. Whether this scenario is realistic is almost immaterial in a market that trades on narrative as much as substance.
What is certain is that as long as the clemency request remains in the news and Trump does not issue a final decision to reject it again, the financial transaction tax will remain a speculative vehicle for anyone willing to bet on an outcome that most people consider unlikely. The White House said no in February. “Absolutely,” SBF said from his prison cell. Somewhere between these two positions, the market finds its price.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before purchasing any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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