Amid the recent sell-off that pushed the XRP price to test the key $1 support level, a small window of optimism is beginning to appear once again. The token is starting to align with a rare monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) setup that – as per previous cycles – appeared before major explosive rallies.
According to According to market expert Sam Daodu, the last three times this signal appeared – in 2017, 2020 and 2022 – XRP continued to rise significantly after that. Gains in those periods ranged from 1,000% to 60,000%. However, there is an important caveat: those massive percentage results started from very low price levels.
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Sam Daodu noted that the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP has fallen to around 41.6. Within the framework of the report, this reading is not only low, but is described as the lowest ever. The RSI level is characterized by a deep oversold zone that XRP has reached only four times in 13 years.
In theory, oversold conditions can sometimes signal the beginning of a turnaround, which is why the signal caught attention again after the XRP price tested $1. However, Dawodu’s point includes a review of reality in relation to expectations.
While past examples of large price increases may be inspiring, they were driven by market conditions that cannot be easily replicated. For example, when the price of XRP was less than a penny in 2017, a subsequent rally took it to $3.84 – a five-digit increase.
The report argues that simply applying the same percentage profit calculations to today’s higher price base would imply XRP reaching prices in the hundreds of dollars — something Dawodu suggests is unrealistic in the current cycle.
The next spike may extend to 2027
So the question becomes: If this pattern continues, what is a plausible rather than fantasy outcome? In the report’s estimate, a recovery to the cycle high of $3.65 over the next year or two would be roughly 3 times higher than current levels.
This type of recovery is presented as believable, assuming that broader market sentiment turns in favor of cryptocurrencies. A significant rally, such as $5 or more, is described as requiring more than just a technical bounce for the XRP price.
The report links this possibility to fundamental catalysts, specifically noting that it will depend on the passage of the CLARITY Act and exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand to expand meaningfully, not just a return to RSI strength.
Even if the price of XRP has already bottomed, the report suggests that the next rally could take until 2027 to fully develop. He also adds that a fixed price during the summer will not necessarily break this pattern, because the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) setting is designed to act gradually over a longer period of time.
Featured image created with OpenArt; Chart from TradingView.com
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