Cryptocurrency analyst David Nagy believes the CLARITY Act could be on the US Senate floor as soon as July. The bill seeks to regulate the cryptocurrency market and recently made it onto the Senate calendar, raising hopes for a full vote in the coming weeks.
Lawmakers and industry leaders met to discuss the Clarity Act
Nagy, managing director and portfolio manager at Arca, pointed to the industry Stakeholders met with Senate offices The staff is in Washington for a week. Moreover, he mentioned in his report that the result appears to be positive. He noted that although debate over the CLARITY Act continues, much of what it sought to do has already been accomplished.
“I came home more convinced than ever of something that seems counterintuitive, given the headlines: in terms of the actual policy of the cryptocurrency market structure, we are very close. Let’s say it’s 80-85% done,” Nagy said. books.
The bill, which was also passed by the House of Representatives and then the Senate Banking Committee Bipartisan votesIt now awaits a vote in the Senate. He added that there are some procedural hurdles to overcome, but the biggest of them has nothing to do with regulating digital assets themselves.
The debate about ethics is at the heart of the matter
Nagy said the issue of the stablecoin return provisions in the CLARITY Act is now over. He described the banking industry’s opposition as a battle that has effectively reached its end. However, figures like JPMorgan CEO Jimmy Damon still disagrees Legislation.
– Jeff Dorman (@jdorman81) June 16, 2026
“My reading, reinforced by almost every office I sat in last week, is that this fight is over, even if the lobby won’t admit it,” he wrote. Naji also added: “The employees I met are not treating the return as a living hurdle anymore. Rather, the settlement comes with a multi-agency study on the impact of deposits.”
Indeed, the discussions have now narrowed towards Moral provisions In the law of clarity. Such a provision would prevent government officials from profiting from any cryptocurrency-related business activity during their term.
“The sticking point is the ethics clause — conflict-of-interest language intended to prevent senior officials from benefiting from the industry they regulate,” Nagy said.
He added that the dispute went beyond political issues. “This is no longer a political dispute. It’s a political issue. No one around this table is actually arguing about whether senior officials should be allowed to mint coins while they are in office. They’re arguing about enforcement powers and, underneath that, about optics.”
July’s vote remains the baseline case for the Clarity Act
Nagy believes that compromise can be achieved by imposing general restrictions on government officials.
“Write a clear, comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency business activity…that applies to the president, the vice president, the entire senior executive branch, and the entire Congress, no names, no exceptions. Make it about the office, not the office holder,” he noted.
His pivotal base case scenario depends on reaching some sort of compromise on the ethics language and getting the Senate versions of the bill together in the coming weeks. After that, he pointed to A Vote on the Senate floor For the CLARITY Act during “mid-to-late” July after Congress returns from recess on July 13.
However, Nagy also mentioned the bear scenario. “If neither is resolved before the holiday, the 2026 practical window will close,” he warned. “We’ll get it in the next Congress” could quietly become “We’ll get it in the next decade,” the Arca CEO added. Senator Cynthia Lummis also pointed out the risks involved in the bill This failed to pass CongressIt could be postponed to 2030.
