Options traders in the bitcoin market are now pricing in a better-than-even chance for the currency to stay below $66,000 until late April — a sign of how quickly sentiment has shifted since Thursday.
Fear controls the options market
The shift is clearly visible in one major scale. Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew rose to 15% on Friday, a level that suggests traders are paying a steep premium for downside protection.
Under normal circumstances, this number ranges between -6% and 6%. Based on data from the derivatives platform It will be a jokeoptions — bets on a price decline — were trading at 0.0580 bitcoin, or roughly $3,786, for the April 24 contract at $66,000.
This pricing includes a 50% chance Bitcoin Stay below this level by the end of the month. He is afraid It has been the dominant force in Bitcoin options since mid-January.
The broader sell-off was hit hard on Friday. Bitcoin fell to $65,500, down 7.5% from the $71,300 it reached the previous day. This single move wiped out more than $200 million of leveraged long positions and rendered nearly all call options worthless before their $18.5 billion monthly expiration.
Bitcoin option prices for April 24. Source: Deribit
The Bears were in control. Put options at a strike of $69,000 or more rolled over over $2 billion in open interest, and 95% of the call options expired void.
Reports indicate that part of the decline was unrelated to price conviction. Some traders simply did not want to maintain exposure to Bitcoin into the weekend, a common pattern when geopolitical risks are high and US markets are about to close.
Source: Alternative.me
Oil at $100 and rising bond yields are putting pressure on risk assets
The pressure on Bitcoin has not come from cryptocurrencies alone. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil It reached $100 a barrel on Friday. The jump is related to Growing tension in the Middle Eastalong with expectations of up to $200 billion in additional US military spending.
This combination raised fears of inflation and pushed investors towards safer positions. Five-year US Treasury yields reached 4%, up from 3.70% just three weeks ago – a rapid move by bond market standards. The S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since September 2025.
Where could Bitcoin go?
Meanwhile, Bitcoin performed less than expected Standard & Poor’s 500 By 20% so far this year. This gap is too wide to be explained by the broader macro environment alone.
Right now, the options market has its answer on where Bitcoin is headed in April – and it’s not higher. With macro pressure building, political tailwinds fading, and traders hesitant to hold out over the weekend, the path of least resistance points to the downside.
Whether Bitcoin holds $66,000 or falls below that may depend less on the currency itself and more on what happens in Washington and the Middle East before the month is out.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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