Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to make his first monetary policy presentation to Congress on July 14. This testimony comes amid investors’ growing hopes for an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while they await new inflation data. It will also mark an important event before the FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin testifies before Congress
The House Financial Services Committee published a Hearing notice Warsh is scheduled to appear at 10:00 a.m. ET on July 14. The appearance comes at an opportune time as markets reevaluate the Fed’s policy stance against the backdrop of some developments related to inflation and interest rate expectations.
In this context, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank must submit a report to Congress on monetary policy every six months, in accordance with American law. Warsh is also scheduled to testify July 15 before the Senate Banking Committee, but Senate staff has not confirmed the date.
Moreover, the focus is now on the Fed’s most closely watched measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. According to economists, the title of May Personal consumption expenditure inflation It will rise by 0.5%, after a 0.4% rise in April. It is expected that the increase on an annual basis will reach 4.1%, compared to an increase of 3.8% in the previous reading.
Market prices at rising interest rates
The PCE inflation data is expected to come on the heels of rising expectations for more aggressive Fed policy. Bank of America has updated His forecast, as he expected the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings in September, October and December 2026. The company had previously expected no policy changes for this year.
Uncertainty remains surrounding any potential move, as reflected in market expectations. Calci data currently places a 25% chance of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in July. Meanwhile, there is a 76% chance that it will be Prices will remain unchanged. However, the odds of an interest rate cut are still very low.
Also, the market expects a 51.9% chance of seeing a quarter-point rise at the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Hence, Warsh’s testimony is expected to include answers to lawmakers’ questions about inflation risks and economic conditions. Moreover, he is expected to discuss the Fed’s interest rate strategy in the coming months.
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