The chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 narrowed after Galaxy Digital cut its approval odds to 50%, even as Senate Republicans continue to push for a vote when lawmakers return from recess.
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- Galaxy Digital has reduced the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50% despite ongoing negotiations in the Senate.
- Sen. Tim Scott supported the Senate vote in July as lawmakers continue to work through key policy disagreements.
- Negotiators are still discussing ethics rules, anti-money laundering measures, and oversight of the digital assets market before the Senate returns.
According to By journalist Eleanor Terrett Congressional staff, White House officials and cryptocurrency industry representatives have continued to negotiate behind closed doors while the US Senate remains in recess until July 13. Their discussions focused on resolving differences between separate versions of the cryptocurrency market structure bill issued by the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees before senators returned to session.
The negotiations focus on several unresolved issues, including ethical requirements, anti-money laundering provisions, and the framework for regulating digital asset markets. Reaching agreement on these points is necessary before the legislation moves toward a vote in the Senate.
The July timeline faces procedural hurdles
Even if negotiators finalize the bill before lawmakers return, the Senate calendar could delay its progress.
Teret reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that the National Defense Authorization Act would be a priority once the Senate resumes its work in mid-July. As a result, consideration of the Clarity Act may be delayed until the latter half of July or even the first week of August.
The timing has become increasingly important because many observers believe the legislation needs Senate approval before Congress leaves for its August recess. Losing this legislative window could make it very difficult to introduce a bill before the end of the 2026 congressional session.
Passing the measure would also require bipartisan support. Legislation requires at least 60 votes in the Senate, while Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Full Republican support is not guaranteed, as Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul opposed the previous GENIUS Act, making Democratic support important for the CLARITY Act as well.
Republican support remains intact despite lower odds of approval
Although negotiations remain incomplete, top Republicans have continued to encourage a vote in July.
In a recent post on X, Senator Tim Scott endorsed Majority Leader John Thune’s proposed timeline for introducing cryptocurrency market structure legislation to the Senate. Scott said the bipartisan proposal would provide clearer regulations for digital assets, strengthen consumer protections, and help sustain innovation in the United States. He also urged lawmakers to move forward with legislation to benefit Americans.
As Republican leaders continue to move forward, market expectations have become more cautious. Galaxy Digital has It lowered its estimates The CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 drop to 50%, highlighting the political and procedural challenges that remain before the legislation can clear the Senate.
The next two weeks are expected to play a crucial role as negotiators work to resolve outstanding political differences before senators return to Washington. Whether or not these talks lead to a compromise could determine whether the Clarity Act reaches the Senate floor in July or loses momentum before Congress’s summer recess.
