Will Abivax (ABVX) stock be bought after recent trial results?

TLDR

• Guggenheim reiterated a Buy rating on Abivax (NASDAQ:ABVX) and maintained a $175 price target after reviewing 44-week maintenance data for obefazimod.
• ABVX is trading at $96.15, up more than 1,157% in the past year but still 35% below its 52-week high of $148.83.
• The trial showed two cases of non-melanoma skin cancer and four cases of melanoma, both within the rates previously directed by the administration.
• Patients who relapsed during maintenance therapy regained clinical and endoscopic remission after regression at a dose of 50 mg.
• Guggenheim expects the stock to trade between $130 and $150 in the near term and called it a “best idea.”

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ABVX (NASDAQ: ABVX ) shares settled at $96.15 after Guggenheim reiterated a buy rating and $175 price target on Wednesday. The call follows new 44-week maintenance data from the company’s obefazimod program in ulcerative colitis.

Epifax SA, APFX

The stock has had a wild ride over the past year, rising more than 1,157%. However, it is still 35% below its 52-week high of $148.83, showing just how much volatility has followed this name.

Guggenheim’s memo focused on safety data from the second part of the trial, an area that investors have closely watched. The company said that the results were within the expectations already set by management.

What the data showed

There were two cases of non-melanoma skin cancer in the study, both in patients who took the 50 mg dose. This results in an event rate of 0.48 per 100 patients per year.

Epifax He said the cases were not related to the drug itself. The company pointed to pre-existing risk factors in these patients instead.

The ratio fell within management’s previous guidance range of 0.30 to 0.70. This is important for a market trying to gauge whether the security profile is holding up.

There were also four cases of melanoma skin cancer. It was divided equally across 25 mg and 50 mg doses.

The incidence of skin cancer was 0.95 per 100 patients. This is within the range of 0.70 to 1.40 previously set by management.

Effectiveness and the analyst’s view

In terms of effectiveness, the news seemed more encouraging. Patients who did not respond during the induction phase continued to improve with longer exposure to opivazimod over the last 8 weeks.

Patients who relapsed during maintenance treatment were able to regain their clinical and endoscopic gains. This recovery occurred after retreatment with 50 mg by week 44.

Guggenheim described the data as supportive enough to keep APIVAX on the Best Ideas list. The company expects shares to trade between $130 and $150 in the near term, a significant gap from current levels.

InvestingPro’s analysis suggests the stock is slightly undervalued at current prices. The platform lists 11 additional ProTips for subscribers covering Abivax’s financial situation and market position.

This is not the only recent comment on Epifax. Wolf Research It cut its price target to $136, citing safety concerns and wanting its valuation to be higher.

Truist Securities took a similar tack, adjusting its target to $135 while maintaining a buy rating. The company also cited concerns about malignancy as a reason for caution.

BTIG went the other way, raising its price target to $175. This call came after the company reviewed positive safety data from the ABTECT Part 2 maintenance trial.

Previous results from the same phase III trial showed that 37.2% of patients achieved clinical remission at week 44 with continued treatment at the 50 mg dose. Endoscopic remission was reported in 34.5% of patients at the same reading.