Circle shares rose despite a bearish analyst note from Jefferies, as new data showed that USDC processed more than double Tether’s USDT-adjusted stablecoin trading volume in June.
summary
- Circle shares rose despite a bearish Jefferies note as USDC led stablecoin trading volumes in June.
- USDC processed $1.21 trillion in adjusted volume, more than double USDT’s $573 billion processed, Visa data showed.
- CRCL bounces off key support, but bulls must break Supertrend resistance to confirm trend reversal.
According to Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, stablecoins hit a record $1.78 trillion in adjusted trading volume through June 2026. Visa data cited by Pandl showed that Circle’s USDC accounted for about $1.21 trillion of this activity, giving it a 67% share of total stablecoin trading volumes. USDT processed $573 billion during the same period.
While Tether lags behind USDC in terms of transaction value, it handled the largest number of transfers, recording 145 million transactions compared to USDC’s 57 million.
Circle Internet Group stock has responded positively to these numbers. CRCL closed up 4% at $64 on July 2 and traded at around $66 in pre-market trading on July 6, extending gains even after Jefferies advised investors not to buy the stock over concerns that a new competing stablecoin could pressure Circle’s market position.
USDC trading volume eases pressure from new competitor
Jefferies to caution Investors on July 2 that He releases The OUSD stablecoin could weaken Circle’s position in the stablecoin market and affect its valuation. The warning came after CRCL posted its biggest single-day decline since March on June 30, when the stock was sold off following the launch of OUSD and Circle. Removal from several Russell indexes.
However, some of these concerns have since faded Questions appeared Regarding Open Standard’s claims of 140 partners. Samsung and Donamo, both previously listed as partners, later distanced themselves from the project, casting doubt on some of the industry’s stated support.
Institutional purchasing also provided support. On the same day Jefferies published its bearish ARK Invest note Announced purchases Nearly $17.8 million worth of Circle shares despite cautious outlook.
However, the USDC recorded a slight decrease in supply. Circle’s stablecoin market cap fell from $73.75 billion on June 30 to $72.87 billion by July 6, suggesting some capital was rotated elsewhere after the OUSD launch even as USDC retained the lead in transaction volume.
The technical bounce is facing significant resistance
From a technical perspective, CRCL rebounded after finding support near the 1.0 Fibonacci extension at $61.73 on the four-hour chart. Buyers have defended this level over recent sessions, helping the stock recover from around $62 to nearly $66.
However, the recovery has not yet changed the broader technical picture. CRCL remains below the Supertrend indicator, which is near $75.66 and continues to indicate that sellers are maintaining control. Restoring this level will be the first indication that upward momentum is strengthening.
Momentum indicators are starting to improve. The MACD histogram has almost returned to the zero line after several weeks of negative readings, indicating fading selling pressure. However, the MACD line remains below the signal line, which means that a confirmed bullish crossover has not yet occurred.
If buyers push the stock above Supertrend resistance, the next upside levels to watch are the Fibonacci retracement areas near $78.47, followed by $91.61 and $100.84. On the downside, losing the support around $61.73 would weaken the current recovery attempt and increase the risk of another downward move.
Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials contained on this page are for educational purposes only.
