Prediction market usage reached record levels in March, supported by improved accessibility and favorable regulatory developments amid growing interest in political and geopolitical event contracts.
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- Prediction market transactions exceeded 191 million in March, with trading volume rising to about $23.9 billion, reflecting a sharp jump over last year.
- Geopolitical and macroeconomic events now drive most activity, while cryptocurrency-related markets account for a smaller share of total trading.
According to A a report Published by TRM Labs, the prediction market segment has expanded rapidly with Google Finance integrations and increased visibility of live odds across major media outlets.
Prediction markets are platforms that allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events by buying and selling contracts linked to developments in the real world.
These markets are “now increasingly used as real-time indicators of geopolitical and macroeconomic events,” TRM Labs said, adding that their growth has been supported by improved accessibility, evolving regulatory clarity, and integration with major platforms.
Data from Dune Analytics He appears The total number of transactions reached more than 191 million in March so far, an increase of more than 2,800% over the same period last year.
Meanwhile, monthly virtual trading volume was about $23.9 billion in March, up from $1.9 billion at the same time last year, but still about 12% below the all-time high in January.
The number of monthly unique wallets also tripled to about 840,000 by February 2026, a trend that reflects what TRM described as a “broad expansion of the participant base,” rather than simply larger bets from existing users.
Most of this activity is driven by geopolitical events and macroeconomic developments, according to TRM Labs, which now dominate cross-platform trading volumes.
“Cryptocurrency-related topics, although widespread, now represent a smaller share of overall activity,” the report added.
At Polymarket, the largest contracts through Monday were focused on US political outcomes, including party nominations for the 2028 presidential race, and geopolitical questions such as whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in office until the end of the year.
This has accompanied growth in this sector Increased scrutinywith Calci and Polymarket facing related concerns Insider trading And comply with it State gambling laws.
Several US states have launched enforcement actions, arguing that some event-based contracts resemble betting products that are not licensed under local regulations.
How platforms handle these regulatory challenges and market integrity concerns will shape the future growth of the sector, according to TRM Labs.
Polymarket and Kalshi have already done so Announced measures to introduce trading guardrails and enhance market integrity, but the broader regulatory outlook currently remains unresolved.
