Prediction markets continue to expand to include new products, new distribution channels, and new regulatory frameworks. This week saw developments in all three areas.
Kalshi is looking beyond perpetual cryptocurrencies
Calci is preparing to expand its perpetual futures business beyond cryptocurrencies, discussing contracts linked to forex, metals and energy with regulatory bodies.
according to Reutersthe exchange has processed $16.1 billion in perpetual futures volume since launching the products in May. The CFTC is also seeking public comment on expanding perpetual futures to include energy commodities.
The move comes as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange continues to challenge the CFTC’s decision to allow Kalshi and Coinbase to offer perpetual futures contracts. This week, Jenner & Block withdrew from representing CME due to a conflict of interest, with former CFTC enforcement chief Aytan Goelman taking over the case.
CME consultant Jenner & Block recently due to “positional conflicts with other corporate clients.” Fmr CFTC Enforcement Dir. Aytan Goleman now represents CME in the lawsuit. I don’t know about this, but exchanging lawyers at this point due to conflicts is unusual. /1
– Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos (@kkirkbos) July 8, 2026
New York hands Kalshi a setback in court
On July 7, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres denied Calci’s request for a preliminary injunction preventing New York from enforcing its gambling laws against the platform’s sporting event contracts.
Calci immediately appealed to the Second Circuit, arguing that its contracts fell within the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC. New York maintains that sporting event contracts remain subject to state gambling law despite the platform’s federal registration.
The ruling leaves the underlying dispute unresolved, but allows New York to continue enforcing its gambling laws while the appeal is ongoing.
One World Cup match generates $460 million
Prediction markets processed nearly $460 million in trading volume for the World Cup match between Mexico and England, according to data reported by Covers.
Calci accounted for approximately US$401-402 million of this activity, while Polymarket handled approximately US$57.7 million. About $177 million changed hands before kickoff and about $225 million during live play on Calcci.
The numbers confirm the trading volume that major sporting events can generate via prediction market platforms.
Bottom line
The World Cup has pushed prediction market activity to new highs. Whether trading volumes remain at similar levels after the tournament ends will be one of the first important tests for the sector.
Another question is regulatory. New York v. Calci moves to the appeals process as the company continues to expand into products traditionally associated with derivatives exchanges. How these two developments unfold will help determine the next phase of industry growth.
This article was written by Tanya Chipkova at www.financemagnates.com.
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