Bernstein says FIGR stock could double — and here’s why

TLDR

• Bernstein rates Figure Technology (FIGR) an “outperform” with a price target of $67, nearly double its current price of roughly $32.
• The figure stemmed from $1.2 billion in loans in March, an increase of 33% month-over-month – the first time monthly volume has exceeded $1 billion.
• Q1 assets reached $2.9 billion, more than doubling from a year ago, bringing annual volume to nearly $12 billion.
• FIGR is down more than 20% year-to-date despite improved operating performance.
• Bernstein estimates the figure at about 25 times expected 2027 EBITDA, which is higher than multiples for a typical digital asset company.

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FIGR caught the attention of Bernstein analysts, who published a bullish report on Monday calling the stock undervalued at current levels.

Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A common stock, FIGR

Bernstein assigned an “outperform” rating and a price target of $67 — nearly double the price the stock is now trading at around $32.

case for appearance It relied on lending numbers, which were difficult to ignore. In March, the company received loans worth $1.2 billion. This is a 33% jump from February and is the first time monthly volumes have surpassed the $1 billion mark.

Total assets for the first quarter as a whole came to $2.9 billion, more than double what the company posted in the same period last year. This kind of growth, during what is typically considered a slow season for HELOC demand, stood out to analysts.

The figure now tracks about $12 billion in annual loan volume.

The company’s primary product is home equity lines of credit, which allow homeowners to borrow against their property at generally lower rates than unsecured loans. Shape runs these through the Provenance blockchain, which it says cuts 117 basis points per loan compared to traditional lenders.

Blockchain infrastructure at the heart

Blockchain infrastructure is key Bernstein thesis. Figure is not just a lender – it operates a credit token market and has rolled out a stablecoin called YLDS as part of its broader financial platform.

Bernstein values ​​the company at roughly 25 times EBITDA for 2027. This falls above where most digital asset companies trade, which analysts say reflects Figure’s dual identity as a tokenization platform and an efficient lending business.

The growth was supported by rising demand for consumer loans and expanding the partner network, according to the report.

Inventory is down 20% despite the numbers

The operating story and the stock price tell two different stories at the moment. The FIGR index is down more than 20% year-to-date, weighed down by volatility across names linked to digital assets.

The stock has also struggled to build on its Nasdaq debut last September, which valued the company at nearly $800 million.

Fourth-quarter earnings showed growth in revenue and profits, but profits fell short of expectations — a detail the market hasn’t forgotten.

Bernstein points out some real risks. A HELOC application is sensitive to mortgage refinancing trends, which means rate movements can quickly change the picture. The private credit market, a key part of Figure’s growth strategy, has also shown signs of pressure.

Q1 assets of $2.9 billion represent the company’s strongest quarter ever.