Long-term Bitcoin holders have seen their losses swell recently, but historical data shows that bear markets bottom out at higher levels.
Bitcoin LTH losses are currently equivalent to 14% of market cap
As noted by on-chain analytics company Glassnode in X mailRecently, unrealized losses among long-term Bitcoin holders have been on the rise. the “Long term owners“(LTHs) here refers to BTC investors who have held their tokens for more than 155 days. This group is considered to include ‘HODLers’ who are aggressive in the market.
Since the last quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has declined significantly along with the broader cryptocurrency sector, and long-term holders of these currencies will naturally also be affected. An indicator that can be useful to measure the impact of a withdrawal on investors is “Unrealized loss“, which, as the name suggests, measures the total amount of loss that BTC investors are currently enduring.
The metric works by reviewing the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine if its last transfer price was greater than the current spot price. Currencies that meet this condition are assumed to have a loss equal to the difference between the two prices. Unrealized Loss This value sums up all tokens of the loss type.
In the context of the current topic, there is a modified model of the index called Relative Unrealized Loss which is interesting. This metric represents carrier loss as a percentage of Market value.
Now, here’s the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin’s relative unrealized loss to LTHs:
The value of the metric appears to have climbed in recent months | Source: Glassnode on X
As shown in the chart above, the 30-day SMA of Bitcoin LTH has been rising over the past few months, as a result of downward price action as well as the maturation of coins purchased at the top of the market in the LTH pool.
Today, the value of the index is 14%, which means that the loss held by diamond hands is equivalent to 14% of the total cryptocurrency valuation. This is the highest degree of pain experienced by LTHs since 2023.
However, it is clear from the chart that the last two bear markets saw the index rise to much higher levels, with notable peaks of around 70% forming during their troughs.
While it is uncertain whether the latest Bitcoin cycle will also see a similar level of pain among LTHs before the bottom, the fact that the relative unrealized loss is still significantly lagging could be noteworthy.
Bitcoin price
Bitcoin has recovered back above the $72,000 level with its recent rally.
The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image by Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
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