Bitcoin is It is approaching the price level at which It has, without exception, led to the absolute bottom of every major bear market cycle in its history, and indicators on the chain show Moment of maximum opportunity Bitcoin traders may be close to taking advantage of the upcoming rally.
Bitcoin’s historical bottom is at the 200-week moving average
One technical level held with Incredible consistency throughout more than a decade of Bitcoin price history. This technical level is actually the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin has never closed a weekly candle meaningfully below its long-term 200-week moving average, even during the pandemic-era crash of 2020 and the bottom of the cycle in late 2022, and has, in each case, made a strong recovery every time it has touched it.
The chart below shows Bitcoin moving in cycles, with each correction eventually cooling off near this long-term average before the rally phase begins. It is worth noting that Bitcoin’s price movement followed the same scenario in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Each time, the extended drawdowns ended only after Bitcoin touched or briefly dipped below the 200-week moving average.
The chart also adds a 14-month RSI reading directly onto the price via a color-coded dot system. Red dots highlight overbought euphoria around cycle tops, while blue dots indicate deep oversold conditions corresponding to capitulation bottoms. On the other hand, the green and yellow dots fill the mid-cycle recovery and expansion phases in between.
Nowadays, Bitcoin is trading above the same line again, putting the price in a position that has historically led to the bottom. Blue dots are starting to form again along the current price path. This is exactly the RSI pattern that appeared at the 2015 low, which is the 2018-2019 low. And the bottom of 2022.
If history holds, the distance between the current price and the confirmed cycle bottom may be very small indeed. Bitcoin can either start a new rally from here or pull back from here to retest $60,000 again before proceeding higher.
The largest breakout structure indicates $500,000
According to cryptocurrency analyst Coinvo Trading, a multi-year cup and handle formation is being displayed on Bitcoin’s monthly chart. Bullish structure It extends over several years, with the round cup forming from mid-2021 to early 2025. The neckline resistance breakout occurred in 2025, and the handle phase of the pattern has been forming since then.
As it stands, BTC is like that It is now approaching the final stages From this formation. Coinvo Trading has a measured target price for this breakout of $505,761, which is derived from anticipating the full depth of the cup formation above the breakout level. “Once it breaks, it will be too late,” the analyst warned.
Featured image of Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
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