Bittensor price is trading at $325.1, down 3.04% on the day, after rejecting a multi-month downtrend line for the second time in two weeks – and the daily MACD has now confirmed a bearish crossover shifting the near-term bias towards the downside.
summary
- Bittensor (TAO) is trading at $325.1, down 3.04% on the day, after rejecting the multi-month downtrend line twice near the $355 to $371 area in the space of two weeks.
- The daily MACD confirmed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line at 19.6 crossing below the signal at 22.0 and the histogram printing at -2.4.
- Immediate support is at $297.5, a confirmed break below this level opens the way to a daily supertrend at $263.7, while a daily close above $371 invalidates the bearish setup.
Petitioner (Tao) produced two consecutive failures at the resistance zone from $355 to $371 in the past two weeks, forming a lower high on the second attempt and reinforcing the strength of the downtrend line that has capped every rebound since November 2025.
The first rejection came near $371 on March 25, after Bittensor was rejected Half Event and reports Grayscale Investments raised its TAO weighting to 43.06% in its AI-focused fund. The second attempt reached $355 on April 7, produced a lower high and reversed. Both rejection points appear as circled pivot points on the daily chart, and TAO has since retreated to $325.1 without recovering above either level.
The daily MACD indicator has confirmed the setup. The MACD line has crossed below the signal, reading 19.6 against a signal of 22.0, with the histogram at -2.4. Both lines remain above zero, limiting the risk of the crossover, but the signal confirms that the momentum built during the AI sector in March pool Fading.
On the 4-hour chart, the MACD remains technically bullish, with the MACD line at 6.8 above the signal at 5.8 and 1.0 histogram. The 4-hour supertrend at $313.8 continues to act as dynamic support. However, the 4-hour chart has been compressed sharply from previous sessions, and a bearish crossover on this time frame would add a meaningful confluence with the daily signal.
Cryptocurrency analyst Michael van de Poppe said on This view supports the base case in which $297.5 is held as a starting point, not a breakdown level.
Key levels and price targets
Immediate Support: The 4-hour supertrend at $313.8, followed by the structural demand zone at $297.5, which can be seen on both the 4-hour and daily charts and was marked as a major floor during the accumulation phase in March.
Extended downside target: $263.7, which is the daily supertrend. Previous analysis indicated a potential corrective move towards $200 if the pattern from previous golden crossover fractals repeats, although this scenario would require a sustained close below $263.7 to take effect.
Bull Case: A confirmed daily close above $371 negates the double rejection and opens the way towards $400. Bearish case: A break below $297.5 targets $263.7. Revocation: $371.
Derivatives and institutional context
Quinglass The data suggests that TAO’s open interest has declined alongside the price in recent sessions, consistent with deleveraging on the long side rather than strong new short positions. This formation reduces the likelihood of a sharp squeeze near current levels and indicates that the next directional move is likely to be supply-driven rather than forced.
Grayscale has also filed with the SEC to convert the Bittensor Trust into an exchange-traded fund and increase TAO’s weighting to 43.06% in its AI fund, making it the dominant firm in the fund. Neither development provides a near-term price floor, but both reduce the likelihood of a sustained breakdown below key support if broader risk appetite stabilizes.
If $297.5 holds on a daily close basis, the base case is a retest of the $355 trend line. A confirmed break below $297.5 shifts the primary target to $263.7.
