After a week of geopolitical shock, prediction markets are back in the routine. Trading continues, positions are opened and closed, and the machines continue to operate. On the surface, it seems like business as usual.
But some developments were hard to miss. Exchanges are beginning to test price competition, while banks and regulators are raising more questions about insider trading – a sign they are starting to take the risks of this market seriously.
Here’s what matters this week.
What drives prediction markets?
This week pricing starts to matter
One of the more practical shifts this week came from pricing.
MEXC offered zero-fee tradinga familiar pattern in cryptocurrencies and their derivatives, shows that platforms now compete more directly for trading flow. The shift changes the focus.
When pricing becomes part of the competition, traders begin to compare execution, liquidity and product quality – not just access.
Rules are no longer theoretical
Banks are starting to implement insider trading frameworks For predictive markets, treating them as an extension of current financial activity. The execution moves in parallel.
Kalci faces charges in Arizona regarding alleged unlicensed gambling activities, highlighting how these markets can be interpreted differently depending on the jurisdiction. Prediction markets are tested against the same legal frameworks as everything else.
Join the editorial Finance Magnates Summit Singapore 2026which will bring together brokers, fintech companies, banks, EMIs, wealth managers and hedge funds across the Asia Pacific region.
Calci’s CEO called Arizona’s charges a “clear overreach,” and described the case as a broader battle over federal versus state power.
The rule of law applies to everyone – including state governments.
The accusations made by the Arizona Attorney General are baseless and a clear overreach. It’s a game skill from a politician up for re-election.
The charges allege that placing money on a “possible future event or… https://t.co/TU4I8HV1CT
– Tariq Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 18, 2026
Liquidity is concentrated and institutions are hesitant
Polymarket now represents approx 55% of global forecasting market activityAs geopolitical events continue to increase trading volume. The platform too Signed a partnership with Major League Baseballgiving it access to official data for event-based contracts – a step towards more structured input.
However, strong liquidity and high-level partnerships have not yet translated into institutional participation. Reports indicate Funds actively monitor the space but do not trade.
The reasons are familiar: regulatory uncertainty, asymmetric liquidity, and unresolved questions about how to classify these contracts. Currently, prediction markets are visible – but they are not yet widely used by institutional investors.
Quote of the week
After a period of litigation and uncertainty, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has begun to define its position more clearly. The agency issued long-awaited guidance and opened the rulemaking process, signaling that prediction markets are now firmly on its agenda.
Prediction markets are one of the most exciting innovations in financial markets. After a very long time, @Koftak It fails to provide guidance for these markets used by millions of Americans. This ends today.
Read the steps the agency is taking here⬇️…
– Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) March 12, 2026
Week number
600 million dollars. That’s how much government regulators say they lose in tax revenue on sports betting as prediction markets operate outside existing licensing frameworks.
Authorities in eleven US states have issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction market platforms, arguing that they effectively operate as unlicensed sports betting registries.
Friction of the week
If prediction markets cannot be stopped, they will most likely be directed. This appears to be the emerging logic on the regulatory side.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has begun clarifying how these markets operate, issuing guidance and opening a formal rule-making process.
Meanwhile, state regulators are taking a different approach — issuing cease and desist orders and treating the same activity as unlicensed gambling. The result is a split system.
Until this gap closes, the market will continue to operate in both worlds simultaneously.
Bottom line
This week has reinforced the ongoing trend. Prediction markets are now treated like markets, priced, regulated and questioned on the same terms as everything around them. But this process is uneven. They are built for price uncertainty. And now they are being tested with it.
After a week of geopolitical shock, prediction markets are back in the routine. Trading continues, positions are opened and closed, and the machines continue to operate. On the surface, it seems like business as usual.
But some developments were hard to miss. Exchanges are beginning to test price competition, while banks and regulators are raising more questions about insider trading – a sign they are starting to take the risks of this market seriously.
Here’s what matters this week.
What drives prediction markets?
This week pricing starts to matter
One of the more practical shifts this week came from pricing.
MEXC offered zero-fee tradinga familiar pattern in cryptocurrencies and their derivatives, shows that platforms now compete more directly for trading flow. The shift changes the focus.
When pricing becomes part of the competition, traders begin to compare execution, liquidity and product quality – not just access.
Rules are no longer theoretical
Banks are starting to implement insider trading frameworks For predictive markets, treating them as an extension of current financial activity. The execution moves in parallel.
Kalci faces charges in Arizona regarding alleged unlicensed gambling activities, highlighting how these markets can be interpreted differently depending on the jurisdiction. Prediction markets are tested against the same legal frameworks as everything else.
Join the editorial Finance Magnates Summit Singapore 2026which will bring together brokers, fintech companies, banks, EMIs, wealth managers and hedge funds across the Asia Pacific region.
Calci’s CEO called Arizona’s charges a “clear overreach,” and described the case as a broader battle over federal versus state power.
The rule of law applies to everyone – including state governments.
The accusations made by the Arizona Attorney General are baseless and a clear overreach. It’s a game skill from a politician up for re-election.
The charges allege that placing money on a “possible future event or… https://t.co/TU4I8HV1CT
– Tariq Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 18, 2026
Liquidity is concentrated and institutions are hesitant
Polymarket now represents approx 55% of global forecasting market activityAs geopolitical events continue to increase trading volume. The platform too Signed a partnership with Major League Baseballgiving it access to official data for event-based contracts – a step towards more structured input.
However, strong liquidity and high-level partnerships have not yet translated into institutional participation. Reports indicate Funds actively monitor the space but do not trade.
The reasons are familiar: regulatory uncertainty, asymmetric liquidity, and unresolved questions about how to classify these contracts. Currently, prediction markets are visible – but they are not yet widely used by institutional investors.
Quote of the week
After a period of litigation and uncertainty, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has begun to define its position more clearly. The agency issued long-awaited guidance and opened the rulemaking process, signaling that prediction markets are now firmly on its agenda.
Prediction markets are one of the most exciting innovations in financial markets. After a very long time, @Koftak It fails to provide guidance for these markets used by millions of Americans. This ends today.
Read the steps the agency is taking here⬇️…
– Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) March 12, 2026
Week number
600 million dollars. That’s how much government regulators say they lose in tax revenue on sports betting as prediction markets operate outside existing licensing frameworks.
Authorities in eleven US states have issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction market platforms, arguing that they effectively operate as unlicensed sports betting registries.
Friction of the week
If prediction markets cannot be stopped, they will most likely be directed. This appears to be the emerging logic on the regulatory side.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has begun clarifying how these markets operate, issuing guidance and opening a formal rule-making process.
Meanwhile, state regulators are taking a different approach — issuing cease and desist orders and treating the same activity as unlicensed gambling. The result is a split system.
Until this gap closes, the market will continue to operate in both worlds simultaneously.
Bottom line
This week has reinforced the ongoing trend. Prediction markets are now treated like markets, priced, regulated and questioned on the same terms as everything around them. But this process is uneven. They are built for price uncertainty. And now they are being tested with it.
