TL;DR
- 21Shares says Bitcoin is still under pressure but still has a way to go back towards the $100,000 area in a recovery scenario.
- The company cites ETF flows, cycle structure and liquidity conditions as key variables.
- The bullish case depends on Bitcoin defending structural support and rebuilding momentum after the sell-off.
21Shares keeps the recovery case alive
Bitcoin’s recent sell-off has hurt sentiment, but 21Shares says the market still has a path to recovery if key structural support holds. In a research note titled “Bitcoin Under Pressure: Will It Hold or Retreat?”, the asset manager outlined the pressure facing Bitcoin as a higher price recovery scenario remains on the table.
The note is useful because it does not simply repeat a bullish target without context. He frames Bitcoin’s weakness around ETF outflows, geopolitical pressure, Liquidation And broader conditions for risk avoidance. This makes the case for recovery more measured: Bitcoin can still rebound, but only if the market absorbs the current pressure and rebuilds the base.
The $100,000 track is conditional
The main number that traders will focus on is the way back towards $100,000. But the important word is “way.” 21Shares’ view is based on Bitcoin defending structural support, easing ETF outflows, negative sentiment around major holders or macro shocks starting to fade.
This distinction is important in a market where traders often treat target prices as predictions. A goal is not a guarantee. This is the scenario on which it depends LiquidityPositioning and investor demand. Currently, Bitcoin is still dealing with a weaker technical backdrop and a market that is becoming more sensitive to macro data.
ETF flows remain centralized
spot ETF flows It remains one of the cleanest institutional demand signals. When ETFs absorb coins, the market has an obvious source of buy-side pressure. When flows become negative, this support weakens and price action becomes more dependent on financial derivatives, short-term traders and macro conditions.
21Shares’ argument suggests that if ETF selling pressure eases, Bitcoin may have room to stabilize. This won’t automatically cause a rally, but it could remove one of the clearest headwinds in the market. Combined with lower leverage following recent liquidations, this could create a cleaner base for recovery.
Cycle history versus current risk
Bitcoin bulls often rely on cycle history, especially post-crisis.Half Patterns. But this cycle is also shaped by institutional products, organizational transformations, and macro matters Volatility In ways that make simple comparisons more difficult. The market is deeper than in previous cycles, but it is also more connected to global risk appetite.
This is why the 21Shares note has reached an instructive moment. He acknowledges the pressure while keeping open a larger recovery scenario. For traders, the near-term question is whether Bitcoin can defend support long enough for the bull case to regain credibility. Until then, $100,000 remains a scenario to watch and not a destination the market has already gained.
This coverage is based on information from 21 shares.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Ray.
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