Bitcoin It looks like It may turn to the upside above $70,000 again, but technical analysis shows that it is There might be something bad coming Soon the price movement.
Last weekend’s price action began to generate bullish views on Bitcoin’s price, but a pattern that has been repeated across every major Bitcoin market cycle shows that the leading cryptocurrency is… Still in the sell zone.
A recurring 4-year cycle ends in the same way
Technical analysis for Bitcoin price action on the weekly candlestick time frame chart shows an interesting observation. The analysis was conducted by a cryptocurrency analyst named Tony Research, who looked at one of the most consistently observed structures in Bitcoin history: the four-year cycle.
The analysis looked at the following periods from bottom to bottom across three distinct cycles. The first cycle (2015 to 2018) lasted 1,431 days; The second cycle (2019 to 2022) covered 1,421 days; The current third cycle (2023 to 2026) is Tracking in about 1390 days.
The Gaussian Channel indicator on the weekly chart shows that each of these cycles followed the same general structure. The structure includes a recovery from the bottom of the bear market, an uptrend that carries the BTC price to new all-time highs, and then a final distribution phase before the big drawdown.
Bitcoin formed bull market peaks in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, with each cycle spanning approximately four years from peak to peak. Consistent with this structure, the last cycle appears to have peaked on October 6, 2025, at just over $126,000.
The price action trading between $60,000 and $76,000, in Tony’s view, is not for nothing but a reflection of indecision at a critical point in the cycle. The conclusion is that this range is the final stage Before deeper correction.
Bitcoin may be in a sell zone
History shows that the moment Bitcoin once again crossed below the upper band of the Gaussian channel signals entry into the final distribution phase. The same signal has now appeared on the current chart, and this reinforces the idea that BTC is trading in an area where… The final decline may occur at any time.
And in another analysisTony outlined an approach to Bitcoin that, in his assessment, has outperformed the vast majority of retail traders over four years. This approach is based on Bitcoin’s relationship with its 200-day moving average.
Whenever the price drops below MA200, the instruction is to buy and accumulate. When Bitcoin breaks back above MA200 and has been trading above it for about 1000 days, the instruction is to sell.
At present, BTC has already spent several months above this moving average. Therefore, the cryptocurrency may not be at a stage where a strong accumulation makes sense.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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