The most convicted Bitcoin holders racked up nearly $2.4 billion in total losses over the 48 hours ending on June 5, 2026, as the spot price broke through the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), a level that, in on-chain analysis, serves as the ultimate structural support in a healthy bull market.
The breakout coincides with a broader repricing of risk aversion across global equities, more than $2 billion in total liquidations of long positions across derivatives markets, and a Fear and Greed Index reading of 12/100, putting market sentiment in the region last seen during the COVID-19 and FTX crash of November 2022.
The analytical question is no longer whether this constitutes a significant event for Bitcoin’s price decline; Rather, it is whether the current distribution pattern of long-term carriers reflects a cycle-ending decline in conviction or the kind of painful but limited flux that has historically preceded recovery periods lasting several months.
Bitcoin price has fallen from recent highs near $69K to $62K, while the Short Term Holder Realized Price (STH-SOR) indicator shows that short holders are capitulating and selling at losses. This scale on the chain indicates the exit of weak hands, which can historically precede… pic.twitter.com/WApSrH6o4N
— Onchain Insights (@OnchainIns5699) June 5, 2026
LTH-SOPR and STH realized the price breach: what the on-chain data actually shows
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a sell-off, which is indicated by a drop in the Long Term Output Spent Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) to less than 1.0. This indicates that coins held for more than 155 days are being sold at a loss.
This is rare in bull markets that typically signal large declines, as we saw in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022. Data suggests that about 26% of Bitcoin sold recently came from holders who purchased more than $90,000, highlighting the shift from accumulation to heavy distribution among long-term Bitcoin holders.
CryptoQuant describes this phase as an on-chain capitulation event, with Short Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) metrics indicating that Bitcoin is in a “sell-hot zone,” with coins trading at deep discounts. While this environment can attract value seekers, past cycles suggest that such conditions can persist for weeks to months without an established price bottom.
Currently, the market has seen a decline of 30-35% from peak levels, a range that has historically shaken latecomers without ending the overall uptrend, although it is still unclear whether this phase represents a deep correction or a peak.
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Width-in loss, MVRV Z-Score, and broader composite signal
When long-term shareholders send… $ Bitcoin To the exchanges
See the chart for the week below👇 pic.twitter.com/3uV9H2jU5C
— Glassnode (@glassnode) June 4, 2026
Unlike LTH-SOPR, on-chain secondary metrics indicate capitulation without confirming a market bottom. Glassnode data The MVRV Z-Score showed at around -1.5 standard deviations, near the $62,000-$65,000 support area, which previously defined accumulation areas in previous sessions.
Currently, a large percentage of Bitcoin supply is being held at a loss, similar to conditions seen during the capitulation in late 2022, but these metrics do not confirm selling exhaustion.
Additionally, a realized Cap HODL wave indicates turnover in the 1-3 month range, while long-term holders remain focused, distinguishing this phase from previous bear market depths.
Confirming a sustainable bottom would require a reduction in net outflows from LTH, a sustained close above the STH-RP level, and stabilization of the bid-to-loss ratio, none of which have been identified yet.
Three scenarios: what happens next at the threshold of the realized price of Bitcoin
$ Bitcoin Take out most of the liquidity below on this move down.
Walking slowly through April to great flow now.
The largest pool of liquidity in this area lies at approximately $83K above local highs.
Below, it is clear that the $60,000 area, which is the local bottom, will still have a good rally… pic.twitter.com/VwVcE3WQ0l
— Dan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 5, 2026
Taurus condition: STH-RP regains a daily close over the next five to 10 sessions, driven by positive ETF flows and a slowdown in LTH spending, similar to the recoveries in March 2020 and late 2022. The $62,000-$65,000 range remains stable, indicating market absorption rather than weakness. Target prices can reach $85,000 – $92,000 in 60 to 90 days with total stability.
Basic case: Bitcoin is consolidating between $60,000 – $68,000 for 4-8 weeks as the LTH distribution is completed, similar to previous accumulation phases. Confirmation signals include flattening of the daily realized loss and positive ETF flows without an immediate price rise.
bear case: A sustained daily close below the $60,000 support triggers a secondary capitulation, likely falling to the $52,000-$55,000 range, representing a 45-50% pullback. Signs of this scenario include a deteriorating Fear and Greed Index, sustained net outflows of ETFs, and a LTH-SOPR below 0.90, indicating a shift to bearish market conditions.
The key indicator to watch is whether daily realized LTH losses start to compress, indicating distribution exhaustion; A lack of pressure indicates constant surrender.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to provide accurate and timely information but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify the information yourself and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Francis is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel brings his background in cross-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and detailed guides. It is certified by the Blockchain Council and is dedicated to providing “information gain” that cuts through the market noise to find blockchain’s real-world utility.
