Bitcoin has lost the $75,000 level as selling pressure intensifies and the market faces a wave of uncertainty that has erased the confidence built during the recovery from April lows. This breakdown is significant, and XWIN Research Japan has identified a development in long-term holder data that challenges one of the most widely cited bullish signals in Bitcoin chain analysis.
The supply of long-term coin holders has reached a record high of 15.8 million bitcoins. By the traditional interpretation that has guided on-chain analysis for years, this number should be unambiguously constructive. More long-term holders means more Bitcoin removed from liquid supply, less available for immediate sale, and a market where more committed participants express their conviction by holding rather than distributing. Record LTH supply has historically been associated with the type of structural supply tightness that precedes a price surge.
XWIN Research Japan presents a CryptoQuant argument that completely overturns this interpretation – an argument worth taking seriously precisely because it challenges the consensus rather than confirming it.
The standard offering of LTH may not reflect the growing condemnation among adherents Owners. This may reflect something more troubling: a lack of new buyers willing to absorb supply at current prices, leaving the coins aging into the category of long-term coin holders by default rather than by design.
Long term stand supply record and no one has bought
XWIN Research Japan analysis It reformulates the standard LTH offer with a request context that completely changes its meaning. In a healthy bull market, coins sold by long-term holders are absorbed by new investors entering the market – a supply turnover that drives price discovery upward as condemnation moves from early holders to new capital. This absorption mechanism is currently absent. Bitcoin appears to be trading less frequently, suggesting that the demand side of the equation has weakened rather than strengthened.
Bitcoin Total Supply by Age | Source: CryptoQuant
Data confirm the diagnosis across multiple groups. Whale holdings in the 1,000-10,000 BTC address range have stopped growing and are trending toward negative growth year-on-year. Dolphin’s holdings in the 100 to 1,000 BTC range — which captures ETFs and corporate demand — have slowed significantly since late 2025. Meanwhile, part of the increase in LTH supply reflects legacy coins held by Coinbase that simply advance in the long-term holder category over time rather than through deliberate accumulation decisions.
The XWIN assessment combines weeks of converging signals into a single score. Weak ETF flows, negative Coinbase Premium readings, declining active addresses, and sluggish on-chain demand have been around simultaneously for a long time. Bitcoin currently does not have a seller issue. It has a buyer problem.
Until ETF flows recover, whale accumulation resumes, and network activity improves, the market remains in a demand recovery phase rather than a confirmed bull market – and record LTH supply is a symptom of this absence, not a solution to it.
Bitcoin loses key support as bears test structure
Bitcoin is trading at around $72,600 after losing the critical support zone of $74,000-75,000 that served as a basis for the recovery from the April lows. This breakout is technically significant because it takes Bitcoin back below the 50-day moving average while at the same time testing the confluence of the 100-day moving average and the key horizontal demand area.
Bitcoin consolidates below the $75K level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
The chart shows a clear rejection from the May high near $82,000, where sellers regained control before the price could challenge the lower 200-day moving average around $80,000. Since then, Bitcoin has produced a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the short-term bearish structure.
The most important level is currently between $72,000 and $73,000. This area served as resistance during March and April before eventually turning into support during the breakout phase. Markets often retest previous breakout levels, and Bitcoin is doing just that now. The reaction here will likely determine the next major step.
If the bulls defend the current area and reclaim $75,000, Bitcoin may try to move back towards $78,000 and eventually $82,000. Failure to hold support will expose the next major demand zone near $65,000-$66,000, where buyers previously intervened aggressively after the February sell-off. Currently, Bitcoin remains at a critical inflection point, with the $72,000-$73,000 area acting as a line separating a consolidation process from a deeper corrective phase.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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