Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to recover at around $78,000, and market expert Ali Martinez says the move could mean the selling phase is already over, with the potential for an upward move that could take the price back to near $100,000.
In a social media post on Thursday, Martinez suggested that Bitcoin may have found its bottom, pointing to three key signs that, in his view, support an upward move into recovery rather than down again.
Why can Bitcoin transcend chaos?
One of the most obvious items is Martinez Highlight Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio, which he said had fallen to -43, was a level that typically reflects the market’s risk-off attitude. However, he added that the gauge has since rebounded to approximately 20.35, suggesting that the extreme volatility and uncertainty of the previous phase may subside.
For Martinez, this improvement is important because it indicates that the market has already “processed” much of the chaos and is now moving toward more favorable conditions on a risk-adjusted basis.
The second signal in his framework was the concentration of supply, specifically through what he referred to as the percentage achieved. Martinez said that metric fell below 7%, which he called historically significant.
When the ratio is that low, he said, it usually indicates lower retail activity — quiet demand from new entrants — and a more concentrated market among long-term owners.
He also said that in previous market cycles, such readings would signal a bottom, implying that selling pressure may have largely run its course and the market’s value is being held by participants least likely to capitulate.
Keep $96,000, lose $55,000
The third element Martinez focused on was what he called a trust measure, using the pulse of flow between exchanges. This indicator tracks the movement of Bitcoin between spot markets and derivatives platforms.
Martinez’s explanation was that current flow trends show that Bitcoin is moving towards derivatives, which he described as a sign of increasing conviction among traders.
In his explanation, investors often transfer coins to derivatives venues to use as collateral for leveraged long positions. He said this type of repositioning usually reflects expectations that prices will move higher.
To end his discussion, Martinez links the picture to MVRV (Market Realized Value) pricing ranges. He said that Bitcoin has managed to get into the −0.5 range, which he stated is currently located near $73,700.
In this model, this level becomes the main pivot point of the current trend. Martinez explained what happens next in simple terms: As long as the support level remains at $73,700, the idea is that Bitcoin might move back towards the mean, which he described as around $96,000.
But he also explained the invalidation clause. If Bitcoin loses the $73,700 support level, he said the bull bottom hypothesis would likely fail, and the price could slide back toward its realized price near $55,000.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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