After a poor start to the year, the price of Bitcoin has steadied the ship somewhat over the past couple of months. According to price action data, the major cryptocurrency closed in the green in both March and April, with a double-digit performance in the previous month.
However, the latest historical data suggests that the Bitcoin price may go through a turbulent period in May. This prediction is based on the premise – or perhaps the fact – that a market leader never posts three consecutive months of positive returns during a bear market.
Will BTC break this pattern or hold it in May 2026?
In a May 2 post on social media platform X, YouTuber Crypto Rover subscriber Interesting insight into Bitcoin’s past performance during bear market years. According to a market analyst, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has never closed a profit for three consecutive months during a bear market year.
Highlighting data from the past 13 years, Crypto Rover pointed to BTC’s uninspiring performance during previous bear markets (2014, 2018, and 2022). Historical data shows that the leading cryptocurrency saw at most four positive months during 12-month periods, with the highest gains (39.46%) being achieved in May 2014.
Interestingly, May has historically been a positive month for the price of Bitcoin, with significant upward moves in seven of the past 12 years, including the past two years. However, it is worth noting that BTC has never recorded three consecutive positive performances in the month of May.
Source: @cryptorover on X
Now, the price of Bitcoin has been in a bear market since late last year, stuck on a sustained downward slope in the first months of 2026. After rising almost 2% in March and 12% in April, and currently up almost 3% in May, the price of Bitcoin appears to be on track to break an unprecedented record if it closes the month in the green.
However, if history is any indication, Bitcoin’s price recovery journey may be about to hit its first major hurdle. Furthermore, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s resurgence is largely driven by the futures market. Not real instant demandWhich makes it difficult to see how a bear market year would be different for the flagship cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin price overview
As of this writing, BTC is at around $78,367, with no significant change over the past 24 hours. According to CoinGecko data, the market leader is up 1% over the past seven days.
However, in a broader context or time frame, Bitcoin appears to be one of the best performing large cap cryptocurrencies. Price data shows that the coin has regained more than 17% of its value over the past 30 days.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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