Over the past week, Bitcoin has traded sideways at the high $70,000 region, unable to reclaim the psychological level of $82,000 that has eluded market bulls since mid-May. Notably, the $76,000 price level has now been tested for three weeks in a row and has held each time, emerging as a real support area. However, an obscure on-chain metric may issue the clearest bottom signal in Bitcoin history.
The main bearish signal arises from investor cost basis data
in Share X On May 22, CryptoChan shared data from a historically reliable bottom indicator built on two realized price ranges: the 6 million to 10-year realized price, which represents the average acquisition cost to long-term shareholders, which currently stands at $60,316; The realized price from 0 to 10 years, which is based on the average cost of the broader market, is $64,412. The ratio between these two ranges indicates how well long-term stockholders relate to the broader market. When it drops below 0.936 and then recovers back towards 1.0, it has marked the exact bottom moment in every previous Bitcoin cycle.
π¨ Historical experience shows that when the black line approaches the green line, it is often a distinct signal of the end of a bear market and a historical bottom.
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πγ#Bitcoin Four-year cycle series updateγThe indicator in the current chart has risen to 0.936At the bearish bottom in 2015, it took 59 days for the index to rise from 0.936 to 1
It took 66 days for the index to rise from 0.936 to 1 at the downward trough in 2018-19… https://t.co/pOwvk1rsDu pic.twitter.com/kr6P4m7bByβ CryptoChan (@0xCryptoChan) May 22, 2026
This is because when the ratio touches 1.0, the green line (long-term holder cost) outperforms the black line (full market cost), meaning that even the most convinced holders are underwater. This is the moment when selling pressure is completely exhausted, and market sentiment is in a state of extreme panic. At the bottom of the 2015 bear market, it took 59 days for the ratio to rise from 0.936 to 1.0. In the 2018-2019 bearish bottom, the recovery took 66 days. At the bottom caused by the FTX collapse in November 2022, the journey took 50 days. The ratio is currently 0.936 again. If the current reading holds and historical data repeats itself, Bitcoin’s final down window could open sometime in mid-to-late July 2026.
Bitcoin price overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $75,269, after a 2.84% loss last week. In tandem, the asset’s performance on larger time frames is also negative, with a decline of 4.65% and 3.55% on the weekly and monthly charts, respectively.
according to Data from CoincodexThe Fear and Greed Index stands at 28, which indicates that fear greatly affects the market. However, CoinCodex analysts support a short squeeze towards $83,354 over the next five days. Within a month, they expect to be back at $77,741. However, their three-month forecast indicates a target price of $90,529, suggesting a potential upside of 16% compared to current market prices.
Featured image from Pixelz.cc, chart from Tradingview
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