Bitcoin’s long-term price structure is once again attracting attention, as the asset continues to follow a strong historical pattern on the monthly time frame. Although short term Given the volatility and changing market sentiment, the broader trend suggests that BTC may still be following well-established cyclical behavior from previous market phases.
How Historical Bitcoin Data Supports Positive May Outlook
Bitcoin’s monthly structure continues to follow a historically reliable pattern that may favor another strong close for May. The cryptocurrency trader owns Ardi Highlight That as of Friday, BTC was trading roughly 5% above its monthly opening price, a position that has historically provided one of the strongest clues about how the rest of the month will play out.
Data shows that when Bitcoin is above its monthly open by the 15th, the market has historically closed the month in positive territory approximately 77% of the time. This trend provides a statistically significant advantage, suggesting that May is likely to end at or above its monthly open near $76,000, making an apparent breakdown of the current range less likely in the short term.
this pattern It has shown remarkable consistency over recent market cycles, with 11 of the past 13 months following the same trend. If May eventually continues, BTC will print three consecutive green monthly candles, which has never happened during any previous BTC bear market.
Bitcoin’s recent retest of key levels was initially successful, but Bitcoin has now returned to the same area for another crucial retest. Crypto investor Rekt Capital He explained This repeated consolidation indicates that the retest process may continue through the remainder of the week as the market searches for confirmation of its next major directional move.
BTC needs to secure a weekly close above the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in green to maintain its position for further short-term upside. batch. However, on a broader time frame, the outlook remains more cautious. As long as BTC continues to respect its multi-month low pattern, the overall bias tends to be bearish.
Why trapped short selling could fuel Bitcoin’s next move higher
According to According to JDK analysis, Bitcoin’s recent downward movement was primarily driven by long liquidations rather than strong selling pressure. Spot market activity remained relatively subdued, suggesting that the decline lacked real conviction from sellers and was instead a mechanical outflow of over-leveraged positions.
At the local bottom, the dynamics are starting to shift. New selling positions entered marketbut instead of pushing the price lower, they were met with negative buying interest that absorbed the selling pressure. As a result, many of these newly opened trades are now trapped at their lows, creating the conditions for bullish absorption.
The next key step is whether aggressive buyers will step in with conviction, JDK’s analysis noted. If they do that, price The pair could start to move higher, forcing those short positions to cover their positions, which would add fuel to the uptrend and confirm strength.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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