Calci traders are now pricing the odds of the US national average gas price exceeding $4 per gallon by the end of July at 88%. According to CNBC Follow the Wednesday market. The same contract was at 56% two days ago.
Traders also give a 64% chance that the average will exceed $4.10 and less than a 5% chance that it will reach $4.50. The contract is resolved using AAA’s daily national average, which was $3.89 on Wednesday, up about three cents from Tuesday. This year’s high was $4.56, which was set on May 21.
US-Iranian strikes push the potential for gas prices to rise sharply
This move came after the end of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran last week and a new wave of strikes on Wednesday. US Central Command posted on the
The strait represents a bottleneck for about a fifth of the world’s oil shipments, and the Calci gas contract has closely tracked events in the waterway through 2026. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August delivery closed on Wednesday at $79.60 a barrel, up 26 cents on the day, marking a third straight session of gains.
The September Brent contract settled at $84.95, also up 0.3%. Oil is less volatile than the Calci contract since the spread between pump prices and crude oil prices is about one week, and Calci traders are betting on the spread to catch up by July 31.
Prediction markets read the shock as more than just noise
As Cryptopolitan reported earlierCalci Futures has already tracked the oil-Iran story since May, when the platform priced a US recession in 2026 at odds of approximately 32.5% with oil surpassing $100 per barrel.
A separate Fed study in early 2026 found that Calci’s forecasts matched the accuracy of the Wall Street Survey and the New York Fed across many Fed decisions and outperformed professional forecasters on the headline CPI. This track record is what makes Wednesday’s 32-point swing worth reading as a signal rather than noise.
Traders’ repricing from a 56% currency reversal to near certainty within 48 hours indicates that the public views the Strait disruption as durable enough to push through the two-week period before the end of the month. On July 9thBefore Wednesday’s strikes, Calcio traders gave it a 75% chance that the price of gas would still be above $3.50 a gallon on Election Day, Nov. 3, and a 39% chance it would exceed $3.75.
Election Day contracts did not move sharply in response to this week’s escalation, suggesting that the public expects the near-term supply shock to peak in July and moderate by the fall.
Traders price the short-term war premium at the pump
Before the war between the United States and Iran began in late February, the average price of gas in the United States was less than $3 per gallon. Wednesday’s average price of $3.89 is roughly 30% above this baseline. The 88% odds of the Kalshi Horde getting $4 gas by the end of the month means the market has effectively priced the war premium as permanent for at least the next two weeks.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains a live target for US strikes after July 31, the same crowd will likely reprice Election Day contracts higher as well.
