The cryptocurrency industry’s most important US market structure bill enters a narrow window in Washington, with Galaxy Digital putting the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year at roughly 50-50. The company’s main argument is not that one issue alone threatens the bill, but that many unresolved issues still need to be settled sequentially, within a rapidly narrowing calendar.
In search Note Published on April 22, Galaxy said that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 is now in the “final phase” after passing the House of Representatives in July 2025 with bipartisan support and spending months in Senate negotiations. The immediate focus is on the Senate Banking Committee, which was expected to announce a rate hike for the final week of April. But that timeline appears to be slipping. According to Galaxy, Senator Thom Tillis, the lead negotiator on the stablecoin rewards language, on Monday called for tokenization to be delayed until May.
It may be the last chance for the Cryptocurrency Clarity Act
Galaxy framed the bill’s prospects in unusually frank terms: “In our view, the odds of signing the Clarity Act in 2026 are roughly 50-50, perhaps lower, although others in Galaxy are more optimistic. The uncertainty does not stem from any single issue, but from a number of unresolved issues that must be resolved, sequentially, under intense time pressure.”
The report argues that coding in early or mid-May would still leave a viable path, but there is not much margin for error. “If this increase is delayed beyond mid-May, the likelihood of the law being enacted in 2026 will decline sharply,” Galaxy wrote. “The remaining legislative timeline does not easily accommodate the full five-step process described above, particularly in light of competing demands for floor time.” In the company’s view, a vote in July is still theoretically possible, but only through “extraordinary political will and coordination.”
The procedural burden is high. Through committee markup, the bill would still need to pass the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, then be matched with the Agriculture Committee version, and then matched again with the House-passed CLARITY Act, before it reaches the president’s desk. Galaxy said each step consumes time that the Senate may not have much of, especially with debates over Iran’s military authorization, an unresolved standoff over DHS funding, and a backlog of competing nominations for floor space.
The most notable sticking point remains the language of stablecoin rewards, with banks and cryptocurrency companies fighting over whether exchanges can offer incentives tied to stablecoin holdings and use. Galaxy said the settlement being negotiated between Tillis and Senator Angela Albrooks would remain in place Block rewards are paid “solely for holding” a stablecoin While allowing for narrower incentives based on activities associated with payments, transfers or use of the platform. But the text has not yet been published, and until it is, the Committee’s 48-hour notification period cannot begin.
Galaxy also explained that stablecoin returns are only part of the problem. The memo highlighted several other immediate issues in the Senate negotiations, including the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act’s protections for non-custodial software developers, ethics provisions regarding government officials’ cryptocurrency holdings, concerns about the impact of Section 505 on the SEC’s exemption for tokenization, and the political issue of SEC Commissioner vacancies. None of these things is necessarily fatal in itself. Together, they create a much more tenuous timeline.
It is worth noting that US Senator Bernie Moreno shares a similar position as Galaxy Digital. When asked about the timeline for legislating the cryptocurrency market structure, he said: “I think we will get it done by the end of May.” But the Ohio Republican also warned last month that if… The Clarity Act was not passed by MayCryptocurrency legislation may be off the table for the foreseeable future.
🚨NEW: At an event in DC this evening, Senator @bernemorino He was asked about the timeline for legislating the cryptocurrency market structure.
“I think we will get it done by the end of May,” he said.
The Ohio Republican warned last month that if the Clarity Act is not passed by May,… https://t.co/wKkIwF7tBT
– Eleanor Terret (@EleanorTerrett) April 22, 2026
The report is generally positive regarding the content of the legislation. Galaxy called the CLARITY bill “a strong bill both technically and policy-wise,” arguing that it would create jurisdiction Boundaries between the SEC and the CFTCDefining paths to treating tokens as non-securities once sufficient decentralization has been achieved, and creating the kind of permanent legal framework that institutional capital has long lacked.
He also warned that the post-midterm outlook could be worse in material terms. A change in control of either chamber would likely result in different committee chairs, different priorities and a less hospitable path for cryptocurrency legislation, Galaxy said.
That’s why near-term milestones are now so important. Galaxy said the next signals to watch are the release of the revised stablecoin text for Tillis, Chairman Tim Scott’s announcement of the marks, the size and bipartisan nature of any committee votes, and whether Senate leadership makes time before the July 4 recess.
At the time of publication, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies was $2.58 trillion.
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