Analysts say CryptoQuant’s signal has flipped Bitcoin into early bullish territory for the first time since March 2023.
summary
- CryptoQuant’s Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator entered bullish territory on May 12, using its P&L indicator to confirm a system turnaround.
- The last confirmed green signal in March 2023 preceded a sustained rally that took Bitcoin from $20,000 to over $73,000 by April 2024.
- Analysts point to March 2022 as the main exception, when the indicator briefly turned green before Bitcoin extended a deeper downtrend into 2023.
Bull and Bear Market Cycle Indicator from CryptoQuant I entered Bullish territory on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, signaling what analysts describe as a potential shift away from bearish market behavior. The index is built on CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, which collects the ratio of MVRV, NUPL, and a comparison between the ratios of long-term holders and short-term SOPR holders.
CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno books On Bitcoin was trading above $80,000 when the benchmark flipped, having rebounded nearly 35% from February lows of $60,000.
Why aren’t analysts calling the market a confirmed bull market yet?
The last confirmed green reading came in March 2023 and continued continuously until August 2024, covering the period during which Bitcoin rose from around $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. The March 2022 signal is the crucial exception: the indicator briefly turned green that month before Bitcoin extended its downtrend into 2023.
Matty Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the index as a system change tool rather than a predictive crystal ball. “Historically, it has been very useful to identify when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear market asset,” he said. Sustained demand, liquidity and price acceptance at higher levels are still needed before the signal can be treated as validated.
Moreno ticked off several secondary metrics that show fatigue in the current setup. Bitcoin must decisively break the $82,000 resistance level, which has rejected multiple upside attempts, before the signal can be considered confirmed by price action.
What the supporting data shows and what Hayes sees
In support of the regime shift thesis, April ETF inflows into Bitcoin spot products reached $2.44 billion, the strongest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025. Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently stands at 4.5, the third highest reading in Bitcoin history, with the only previous comparable readings occurring at the 2015 and 2022 cycle lows.
Arthur Hayes, IT Director at Maelstrom, Argue Separately, Bitcoin has already found the bottom of its cycle at $60,000 earlier in 2026 and has set $90,000 as the threshold at which any rally would turn to the previous all-time high of $126,000. Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000 to $90,000,” Bitget Wallet analyst Lacey Zhang said, citing strong institutional support and continued ETF inflows.
