Galaxy Digital lowered its expectations for the CLARITY Act to pass in 2026. It noted that the cryptocurrency market structure bill is on a very tight Senate timeline. Furthermore, he highlighted the lack of overall progress on the bill before the end of Congress’ recess in August.
Odds of approval of the Galaxy Digital Slashes CLARITY Act
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, lowered the odds to 50% in the latest research, bringing the number down from 60% a few weeks ago.
“We are making our discount Prospects of passage of the CLARITY Act “In 2026 to 50-50 with the Senate calendar tightening and no progress in negotiations makes passage less likely than it was several weeks ago,” Thorne wrote, adding that “the absence of news is itself news.”
– Alex Thorne (@intangiblecoins) June 26, 2026
This bill was referred to the Senate Banking Committee and has been pending in that committee since May, when it was voted on Clarity law approved 15-9. The Banking and Agriculture Committee began merging the text of the draft law, but did not publish the merged text or set a date for discussion.
fork male “Constructive work at staff level towards a unified text is what we would like to see at this stage.” But he stressed that “special meetings are not the same as scheduled voting.”
There are also some unresolved policy issues. Ethics issues It remains divided among lawmakers, even though the conflict of interest amendment made it out of committee. Meanwhile, law enforcement groups are still seeking changes to developer protections included in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
The Senate’s busy agenda is in the spotlight
However, the Senate faces a tight timeline, and Galaxy stressed that this is the biggest hurdle. “Competition for floor time “It intensified this week” after President Donald Trump tied his approval of a bipartisan housing bill to passage of the Savings Act, Thorne said.
The limited time is also competing for other unfinished business, such as FISA legislation and the annual National Defense Authorization Act. Now, with the Senate in The holiday is extended until July 13The law of clarity faces a time crunch.
“The downgrade is primarily related to the evaluation, not the content of the bill,” Thorne wrote. “The runway is declining rapidly in just a matter of weeks,” he added. “Speech time is the scarcest resource in the Senate right now,” the Galaxy CEO warned Crypto market structure Not first in class for that.”
According to Thorne, general consensus on a single bill text, resolution of outstanding issues, and “above all, commitment to the July leadership minimum” would boost the bill’s chances. “Announcing the timeline in the next two weeks will likely push us back toward 60% or higher,” he added. On the contrary, he pointed out that “continuing silence until mid-July would push us lower.”
