An American soldier has been accused of using classified information to trade on Polymarket. Meanwhile, lawmakers in Congress moved to restrict trading by their members.
Singapore Summit: Meet the top APAC brokers you know (and those you don’t know yet!).
Three events in two days came together in one argument: the regulatory framework for prediction markets is now being written. Here’s what matters this week.
What moved the prediction markets this week
A soldier bet on Maduro
On April 25, the Department of Justice revealed A Criminal indictment against a US Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly used classified information about a military operation targeting Nicolas Maduro to trade on Polymarket. He placed about $33,000 in bets and was said to have made about $400,000 in profits.
The case immediately drew attention to both major prediction market platforms. Kalci said it does not allow war-related markets and actively enforces insider trading rules. Polymarket said it supports regulatory efforts to address insider trading. The distinction between a regulated exchange and an offshore platform has become part of the political debate.
Congress moves from messages to rules
On April 30, lawmakers stepped up their response to prediction markets. A group of senators urged the CFTC to ban several categories of contracts, including those tied to elections, sports and military businesses. The focus on sports is not accidental. According to the data mentioned in the letter, Sports contracts It represents about 87% of the volume of Kalshi.
Hours later, the Senate issued a resolution prohibiting its members and employees from trading in prediction markets, effective immediately. The shift from letters to formal actions marked a clear change in tone for Congress.
🚨 NOW: The US Senate unanimously approved a ban on senators and their staffs from participating in trading on a prediction market, such as Polymarket or Kalshi
Sin. Bernie Moreno: It’s degrading our voters’ trust in us!
“I present a resolution that makes this… pic.twitter.com/ifmSG65OmF
– Eric Dougherty (@EricLDo) April 30, 2026
Excess liquid tables for prediction markets
The proposal on April 30, Hyperliquid has moved to add prediction markets To its platform. The decentralized exchange, which has processed more than $1 trillion in derivatives volume, is including event contracts in its existing offering.
HIP-4, Governance Proposal for Addition Prediction markets to its platform, and is currently in public testing. It will allow traders to bet on real-world outcomes from the same margin account used for perpetual futures contracts. The move positions Hyperliquid as a direct competitor Polymarket On the sea side.
Quote of the week
On April 25, cryptocurrency investor and writer Nick Carter posted a thread on X arguing that insider trading is not a bug that prediction markets can get away with — but rather a feature built into the model. Carter, who has more than 100,000 followers, published an entire article on the topic that same week. His argument put pressure on both platforms’ claims that disciplinary enforcement solves the problem.
– Nick Carter (@nic_carter) April 25, 2026
Week number
$39.7 billion The estimated value of sporting event contracts is within the total volume of CALC for the year ending February 2026, based on figures cited in Senator Merkley’s April 30 letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The number highlights what’s at stake: Regulators in this category target accounts that account for the bulk of trading activity on the platform.
Friction of the week
The central tension this week is between self-regulation and organizational legitimacy.
everything It spent two years obtaining a CFTC license and positioning itself as a “responsible” platform. It has built compliance systems and even suspended three congressional candidates to prove that enforcement is real. But those cases involved small amounts and internal penalties.
The case of a US Army soldier accused of earning nearly $400,000 using classified information has changed its scale. Although the deals took place on Polymarket, the regulatory response has spanned the entire industry.
The lesson here is clear: regulated status does not protect the platform from broader consequences. When a high-profile incident involves an unregulated competitor, lawmakers respond to the category as a whole.
Bottom line
This week’s events formed one series. Friday’s indictment of the soldier gave Democrats a concrete case to work on, leading to a formal crackdown on the industry by midweek. The regulatory moment that the market had been anticipating for two years arrived within 72 hours.
The question now is how the CFTC will respond to more than 115,000 public comments while facing political demands to ban the sector that generates the most volume on regulated platforms.
These platforms are now caught between stricter rules from above and increasing competition from decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid that operate outside US oversight.
An American soldier has been accused of using classified information to trade on Polymarket. Meanwhile, lawmakers in Congress moved to restrict trading by their members.
Singapore Summit: Meet the top APAC brokers you know (and those you don’t know yet!).
Three events in two days came together in one argument: the regulatory framework for prediction markets is now being written. Here’s what matters this week.
What moved the prediction markets this week
A soldier bet on Maduro
On April 25, the Department of Justice revealed A Criminal indictment against a US Army Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly used classified information about a military operation targeting Nicolas Maduro to trade on Polymarket. He placed about $33,000 in bets and was said to have made about $400,000 in profits.
The case immediately drew attention to both major prediction market platforms. Kalci said it does not allow war-related markets and actively enforces insider trading rules. Polymarket said it supports regulatory efforts to address insider trading. The distinction between a regulated exchange and an offshore platform has become part of the political debate.
Congress moves from messages to rules
On April 30, lawmakers stepped up their response to prediction markets. A group of senators urged the CFTC to ban several categories of contracts, including those tied to elections, sports and military businesses. The focus on sports is not accidental. According to the data mentioned in the letter, Sports contracts It represents about 87% of the volume of Kalshi.
Hours later, the Senate issued a resolution prohibiting its members and employees from trading in prediction markets, effective immediately. The shift from letters to formal actions marked a clear change in tone for Congress.
🚨 NOW: The US Senate unanimously approved a ban on senators and their staffs from participating in trading on a prediction market, such as Polymarket or Kalshi
Sin. Bernie Moreno: It’s degrading our voters’ trust in us!
“I present a resolution that makes this… pic.twitter.com/ifmSG65OmF
– Eric Dougherty (@EricLDo) April 30, 2026
Excess liquid tables for prediction markets
The proposal on April 30, Hyperliquid has moved to add prediction markets To its platform. The decentralized exchange, which has processed more than $1 trillion in derivatives volume, is including event contracts in its existing offering.
HIP-4, Governance Proposal for Addition Prediction markets to its platform, and is currently in public testing. It will allow traders to bet on real-world outcomes from the same margin account used for perpetual futures contracts. The move positions Hyperliquid as a direct competitor Polymarket On the sea side.
Quote of the week
On April 25, cryptocurrency investor and writer Nick Carter posted a thread on X arguing that insider trading is not a bug that prediction markets can get away with — but rather a feature built into the model. Carter, who has more than 100,000 followers, published an entire article on the topic that same week. His argument put pressure on both platforms’ claims that disciplinary enforcement solves the problem.
– Nick Carter (@nic_carter) April 25, 2026
Week number
$39.7 billion The estimated value of sporting event contracts is within the total volume of CALC for the year ending February 2026, based on figures cited in Senator Merkley’s April 30 letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The number highlights what’s at stake: Regulators in this category target accounts that account for the bulk of trading activity on the platform.
Friction of the week
The central tension this week is between self-regulation and organizational legitimacy.
everything It spent two years obtaining a CFTC license and positioning itself as a “responsible” platform. It has built compliance systems and even suspended three congressional candidates to prove that enforcement is real. But those cases involved small amounts and internal penalties.
The case of a US Army soldier accused of earning nearly $400,000 using classified information has changed its scale. Although the trades took place on Polymarket, the regulatory response has spanned the entire industry.
The lesson here is clear: regulated status does not protect the platform from broader consequences. When a high-profile incident involves an unregulated competitor, lawmakers respond to the category as a whole.
Bottom line
This week’s events formed one series. Friday’s indictment of the soldier gave Democrats a concrete case to work on, leading to a formal crackdown on the industry by midweek. The regulatory moment that the market had been anticipating for two years arrived within 72 hours.
The question now is how the CFTC will respond to more than 115,000 public comments while facing political demands to ban the sector that generates the most volume on regulated platforms.
These platforms are now caught between stricter rules from above and increasing competition from decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid that operate outside US oversight.
