JP Morgan expects gold prices to trade sideways in the coming weeks before rising to $4,500 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank is recalibrating its short-term forecasts due to lower demand from key buying sectors.
The Wall Street bank expects the price to average $4,300 per ounce during the third quarter, rising to $4,500 in the fourth quarter, according to a Reuters report. JPMorgan still sees gold heading higher, but not as quickly as it previously expected.
Recalibration due to poor demand
JP Morgan’s analysis indicates that it has purchasing power reduced Among the main centers of demand for gold, gold has also become more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates.
These changes have made gold less attractive compared to other assets for investment, which then puts a cap on the prices that can be achieved in the short term.
The bank also described the current price situation as “range limited,” according to Binance News. This means that traders should expect sideways price movement before any recovery occurs in the second half.
JP Morgan believes the long-term outlook is still valid
JP Morgan’s medium-to-long-term view remains strongly positive, and the bank has noted three structural forces that all ensure gold’s rise continues into 2027.
Central banks around the world are still accumulating gold reserves at an increasing pace. In addition, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to continue to rise over the coming months. Finally, institutional investors continue to allocate significant portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging purposes, a pattern that shows no sign of abating.
JP Morgan expects that these factors will maintain gold’s role as a safe haven asset and an alternative to the reserve currency, even if short-term price action is disappointing to retail traders.
Gold and Bitcoin have traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. JPMorgan’s report on a “range-bound” gold price forecast will likely shift some institutional capital towards the cryptocurrency market in the short term.
However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means that gold won’t stop being an important store of value anytime soon.
